Seligman, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

819
FXUS63 KSGF 131931
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
231 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions continue,
  with low 15-25% chances for afternoon pop-up showers and
  thunderstorms each afternoon.
- Next system brings greater 30-50% chances of rain during the
  middle of next week. This system could mark a pattern change
  with cooler, more seasonable temperatures following its
  passage.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Current water vapor imagery shows a very steep meridional wave
pattern in place with a strong, steep, and moisture-laden
trough across the west CONUS, and a weaker, but still steep
trough over the east CONUS. This leaves steep ridging across the
central CONUS, with the axis running right through southwest MO.
At the surface, a low pressure system--associated with the
trough over the west CONUS--is situated over SD, with a cold
front and dryline extending south, and a weak warm/stationary
front extending ESE through IA/IL. This has allowed southerly
flow across our area, bringing in warm temperatures and marginal
moisture.
Above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions continue:
The warm temperatures south of the warm front are also
aided by compressional warming from sinking air beneath upper-
level ridging and mid-level high pressure. This has allowed
temperatures to be well above normal the past few days, today,
and onward. High temperatures in the middle 90s are once again
expected today within this pattern, with warm lows in the upper
60s to lower 70s. While these are not quite record-breaking
temperatures, they are very close and certainly well above the
90th percentile for this time of year. For context, the Extreme
Forecast Index has 80-95% of model members showing a higher
temperature than normal climate reforecasts for early September.
15-25% chance of a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon:
The past few days, warm temperatures within the mid-level high
pressure and drier near-surface air has kept conditions capped
for shower and thunderstorm development. Today, easterly 700 mb
flow is progged to advect in slightly cooler mid-level
temperatures. At the same time, the southerly flow has slowly
increased near-surface moisture (past few days have been upper
50s dewpoints, today is mid-60s). These factors should then
influence a weaker cap and allow for diurnal pop-up showers and
thunderstorms, especially along and east of Hwy 65 where
temperatures aloft are cooler. The further east you go, the
cooler the mid-level temperatures and the drier the air at the
surface is. Therefore, there seems to be a sweet spot of better
moisture and cooler temperatures aloft, supportive of a better
chance of showers and thunderstorms today (15-25%). This would
be along the Highway 65 corridor and just east where currently
a cumulus field has developed, with signs of agitation between
Springfield and Branson, and eastward to Mountain Grove. It`s
this area that isolated to scattered pop-up showers and
thunderstorms are possible between 3 and 7 PM, before nighttime
stability dissipates any activity.
Hazards: Severe weather is not anticipated, though lightning
will be a hazard. The coverage of lightning-producing storms is
still in question based on how mixed we get this afternoon. HREF
members are bimodal with a cluster showing upper 50s afternoon
dewpoints, and another cluster showing lower to mid-60s
dewpoints. The lower dewpoints would lead to lower CAPE with
more skinny profiles which may inhibit vertical growth of
showers, stunting lightning potential. The higher dewpoints
would lead to greater CAPE with more appreciable profiles
supportive of a greater coverage of thunderstorms. Currently,
dewpoints at Springfield are around 62-63 F, which is greater
than previous days, so hedging bets toward the greater moisture
scenario, bringing a lightning hazard to any areas that see
showers today.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions continue:
Global models prog the current pattern to be quite static
through this weekend and early next week as the two troughs
churn away in their respective locations. This leaves upper-
level deformation and mid-level high pressure to remain over
our area for the entire period. As previously mentioned, the
static nature of the pattern is leading to very high confidence
in temperatures with NBM spreads at less than 2-5 degrees.
Therefore, highs are expected to continue to be in the lower to
mid-90s through Tuesday, with lows in the middle to upper 60s.
15-25% chances of pop-up storms each afternoon through Wednesday:
Once again, since the pattern will be static, lingering moisture
and instability along and southwest of the NW-SE oriented
warm/stationary front along the Mississippi River Valley brings
a low 15-25% chance for daily afternoon pop-up showers and
thunderstorms through Wednesday. The best chances are along and
east of Highway 65 where better instability and surface
convergence is forecast to be. No severe weather is expected
with these chances.
Greater 30-50% rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday:
The western trough is then forecast to finally make its way
across the central Plains during the middle of next week.
Cluster analysis still shows some uncertainty in shape,
intensity, and timing, but the grand ensemble mean points to the
traversal occuring sometime between Wednesday night and Thursday
night. The greater forcing would bring a better chance for more
widespread rain and thunderstorms. Currently, due to the
uncertainty, there is a 30-50% chance across our area. As of
now, QPF clusters are not overly excited about any sort of
"washouts", with the vast majority of models keeping amounts
well below an inch through next week.
More seasonable temperatures filter in following the next system:
As lower heights enter the region following the system, NBM
mean temperatures also decrease to near normal. Though there is
still quite a bit of spread as we get past the next system (for
example, we could see highs as low as the upper 70s or as high
as the upper 80s), the overall trend is a decrease, pointing to
the potential *real* arrival of fall in the near future.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
VFR conditions are expected for a majority of the TAF period.
Short-term model guidance along with satellite observations of
cumulus forming around SGF and BBG suggests isolated to
scattered coverage of showers between 19-01Z. Coverage will be
low, thus the PROB30 group for SGF and BBG. There is a chance of
lightning, but only a few showers may have a 15-30% chance for
becoming strong enough to produce lightning, so the probability
of it impacting the TAF sites directly is currently too low to
include.
Otherwise, southwesterly 8-12 kt winds will shift southerly
after 01Z, with high clouds filtering in.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Values listed below are for sites where the forecast is within
5 degrees of a record.
Record High Temperatures:
September 13:
KSGF: 99/2011
KVIH: 96/1956
KUNO: 96/1980
September 14:
KVIH: 99/1971
September 15:
KSGF: 98/1893
KUNO: 98/1954
September 16:
KSGF: 95/2019
KVIH: 96/1954
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
September 15:
KSGF: 74/1936
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Price
CLIMATE...Nelson

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion