Seven Corners, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

139
FXUS61 KLWX 301800
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure builds south from Ontario and Quebec
through the week. A strong cold front will track across the
area tonight bringing cooler and drier weather for the middle
and latter part of this week. Moderating trend in temps this
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Lingering showers across central VA will continue through the
afternoon. A gradual downward trend should continue in coverage
as low-level dry air is advected in on strengthening NNE winds.
Otherwise, a thick mid to high level overcast will persist today
with gradual thinning this evening, then clearing overnight. A
backdoor cold front will then cross the area tonight bringing a
cooler and more seasonable air mass for the middle and latter
part of the week. This will also bring a much drier airmass into
the area. Winds overnight behind the front expected to be out of
the NNE at 5-10 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Given the quiescent pattern, no major changes to the short
term. Building 1090+ mb high pressure from Quebec will be the
main story for the middle and second half of the week supporting
clear skies Wed and Wed night. NNE to NE winds will start
shifting more to the E Thu as high pressure over the Northeast
slides offshore. Models show more cloud cover Thu with a
stratocu deck developing as onshore winds develop. Temps will
cool down Wed and Thu with highs around 70 and falling into the
40s west of I-95. Some patchy frost can`t be ruled out in the
most sheltered valleys west of the Blue Ridge with the favored
areas making a run at 32F. Will look to nail down temperature
forecast for Wed and Thu night in future shifts, but given the
low Tds in the 30s, think some areas could truly bottom out.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Continued influence of strong surface high pressure will remain
along the eastern seaboard through the weekend, perhaps
drifting slowly eastward early next week. Initially rather flat
ridging aloft will expand eastward and amplify by early next
week as a series of troughs move through the western part of the
continent. Dry conditions should prevail, although there are
some hints some moisture could start wrapping around the ridge
from the south by Monday. Below normal temperatures on Friday
will moderate back above normal over the course of the weekend.
Given moderating trend in temps, no frost/freeze concerns
overnight.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Continued SHRA in the vicinity of CHO and central VA should
gradually diminish through the afternoon. Mid to high level
overcast today will gradually thin out this evening with
clearing expected overnight. Onshore winds Thu may result in a
stratocumulus deck, though no restrictions expected at this time.
NNE winds will strengthen tonight into Wed with gusts up to 20
kt possible. Winds begin to diminish later Wed.
No significant weather is expected Fri and Sat as strong high
pressure remains overhead.
&&
.MARINE...
N to NNE winds will strengthen today into Wed with SCA
conditions expected as the pressure gradient tightens with the
high to the north and low offshore. Winds will begin to
gradually diminish later Wed, but SCA conditions may persist
into Thu evening.
Winds will become southerly Fri, but should remain below
advisory criteria into Sat as high pressure remains centered
nearby.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
North to northeast winds are forecast to strengthen today into
Wednesday as strong high pressure builds in from the north. This
is going to keep tidal anomalies in check.
The threat for widespread minor coastal flooding, and possible
moderate coastal flooding at Annapolis could occur during the late
part of the week. Have issued a Coastal Flood Watch to account
for this during the Wednesday night high tide. This will be due
to a snapback tide when the strong northeast winds start to
diminish Wednesday night, then turn east to southeast Thursday
afternoon into Friday.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Wednesday for MDZ008.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
     morning for MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ530>533-538>542.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Wednesday night for
     ANZ534-537-543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ535-536.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CPB
NEAR TERM...CPB
SHORT TERM...CPB
LONG TERM...CPB
AVIATION...CPB
MARINE...CPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CPB

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion