Shaw A F B, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

866
FXUS62 KCAE 192353
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
753 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Outside of a few isolated showers on Saturday, the area remains
generally dry as high pressure builds over the area this
weekend. Above average temperatures can also be expected through
the weekend. Dry conditions continue into mid-week before the
next chances for rain arrive.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Key message(s):
- Mostly dry into Saturday morning but patchy fog once again
  expected overnight tonight.
This afternoon unfolded as expected with some shortwave energy
sparking isolated to scattered showers mainly south of the I-20
corridor where a couple attempts at a shallow storm was noted
but the limited instability and PWAT`s around 1.4-1.5" generally
led to this activity collapsing quickly. Lingering showers are
now waning this evening and a mostly dry overnight period is
expected. Like last night, another night with strong radiational
cooling conditions and generous low level moisture should bring
more patchy fog across the area, especially toward the Coastal
Plain and eastern Midlands where a couple pockets of locally
dense fog is not out of the realm of possibilities. Any fog
should begin to burn of just after daybreak. Overnight lows are
expected to fall into the mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Warm and mainly dry conditions continue through the weekend.
We`re expected to be in between an upper trough just to our
south and a developing ridge to our north while surface high
pressure builds in from the north. As a result, the area is
forecast to be mainly dry and warm Saturday. However, much of
the guidance is indicating that a vorticity max moves through
the area Saturday, which could be enough to spark an isolated
shower or storm in the afternoon, but probabilities are low
(~10%) so leaving the dry forecast as is for the time being. By
Sunday the upper trough to our south is forecast to move out of
the area while ridging builds behind it, leaving the day dry
with continued warmer than average temps.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Rain chances return for mid to late week.
Upper ridging and surface high pressure remain over the area to
start the week, but weak troughing is forecast to move north of
the region as we transition to midweek. Most of the energy with
this trough is anticipated to stay north, resulting in likely
(>90% chance) of being dry through Tuesday. A stronger trough is
forecast to dig into the central CONUS by midweek, bringing
chances for rain back to the forecast area for the mid to late
week time period. Temperatures in the long term remain somewhat
in question as the ensemble spreads are still quite large,
indicating higher uncertainty. This uncertainty is in part due
to the amount of cloud cover and rain we may get.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Fog Likely Tonight at AGS, Lower Chances Elsewhere....
Radar this evening shows scattered showers moving south, away
from AGS/DNL and a lone shower northeast of OGB. Activity should
continue to diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Went with
a persistence forecast for the TAFs for the overnight period
with AGS most likely to experience restrictions due to river
fog, though both AGS and OGB will likely see significant swings
in flight categories as the night goes on. Meanwhile,
maintained a TEMPO at CAE/CUB for MVFR visibilities towards
daybreak. DNL did not experience any reductions last night so
keeping a clear forecast there for now. Much like this morning,
expect fog to quickly dissipate after sunrise with SCT cumulus
returning around midday Saturday. Light winds expected again
Saturday generally out of the NE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A relatively dry air mass will hinder
widespread rainfall and restrictions through early next week.
However short periods of early morning fog/stratus remains
possible at AGS and OGB through the weekend. Towards the end of
the extended, moisture increases which will lead to increasing
chances for rain and widespread restrictions.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion