Shaw Crest, New Jersey Weather Forecast Discussion

413
FXUS61 KPHI 112106
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
506 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure extends southward into our area through
Friday. The high then shifts eastward and gradually weakens over
the weekend. A cold front crosses our area later Sunday into
Monday, then high pressure builds to our north Tuesday into
Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Canadian high pressure will continue to shift towards the
Northeast through Friday, keeping the weather calm and dry.
A mostly sunny and seasonable September afternoon continues.
For tonight, high pressure remains in control, leading to a
mostly clear and calm night. Lows will be in the 50s with a few
sheltered locations potentially cooling into the upper 40s.
Another sunny and seasonable September day expected Friday with
high pressure in full control. Afternoon highs look to stay
nearly identical to Thursday, warming back up into the upper 70s
to low 80s across much of the region with low to mid 70s for the
Poconos and the shore.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A gradually weakening upper-level trough is forecast to cross our
area into Friday night, then an upper-level trough across portions
of eastern Canada amplifies southward into the Northeast Saturday
into Sunday.
At the surface, high pressure will mainly be in control for the
short term period. Over the weekend, the upper-level trough is
across the region which does at least result in some clouds at
times, with this perhaps more pronounced during the daytime hours.
One of the more noticeable trends with recent guidance is the drier
forecast and no real signal of the closed low in the upper-levels
for our region during the Saturday night to Monday night timeframe
that was there with previous runs. What this has resulted in is PoPs
over the weekend below 15% and guidance showing mainly a spotty
shower possible. The high pressure system also seems to linger a
little longer but does weaken a bit and move eastward during the
second half of the weekend. For temperatures, highs on Saturday will
be in the mid 70s to low 80s and in the upper 70s to mid 80s on
Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
During the long term period, upper-level troughing remains overhead
with the southern part of the trough closing off on Monday to the
south of our area. By Tuesday and Wednesday, this now closed low
moves northward into our region.
At the surface, there is a signal for a cold front to still move
through on Sunday night into Monday but there does not appear to be
a lot of moisture with this cold front. As a result, PoPs are below
15% and some spotty shower activity only looks possible at this
time. What seems to be more mentionable is the continued signal for
a coastal low Monday through Wednesday. There is a large amount of
uncertainty given the timeframe this falls in during the long term
period. Due to this, I stuck close to the NBM which has PoPs below
15% during this timeframe. Temperatures during this period for highs
look to be mainly in the mid 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows are
mainly in the mid 50s to near 60.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Rest of today...VFR with mainly clear skies and northerly winds
around 5-10 knots. High confidence.
Tonight...VFR with mainly clear skies. Light and variable winds,
favoring a northerly direction. High confidence.
Friday...VFR. Light winds from the northeast around 5 knots or
less. High confidence.
Outlook...
Friday night through Tuesday...VFR conditions with no
significant weather expected.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions not expected through Friday. Variable winds 10-15
kts with seas 2 to 4 feet.
Outlook...
Friday through Monday...The conditions are anticipated to be below
Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Tuesday...SCA conditions possible with increasing seas to near 5
feet.
Rip Currents...
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
For Friday, northeast to east winds around 10-15 mph. Breaking
waves in the surf zone of mainly 2-3 feet are forecast. An
easterly swell around 7 seconds is forecast. As a result, there
is a MODERATE risk for development of dangerous rip currents at
all beaches.
For Saturday, an east winds around 10 mph gradually becomes more
southerly by the afternoon at 10 mph. Breaking waves in the
surf zone of mainly 2-3 feet are forecast. An easterly swell
around 7-8 seconds is forecast. As a result, there is a
MODERATE risk for development of dangerous rip currents at all
beaches.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
All Coastal Flood Advisories have been allowed to expire. Some
spotty minor tidal flooding may continue into Friday but the
gradual trend is downward with any tidal flooding after Friday`s
high tide cycles.
No tidal flooding is expected along the northeast coast of
Chesapeake Bay.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ....High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ014-
     024>026.
DE...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Guzzo
NEAR TERM...MJL
SHORT TERM...Guzzo
LONG TERM...Guzzo
AVIATION...Guzzo/MJL
MARINE...Guzzo/MJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion