Shelton, Washington Weather Forecast Discussion

043
FXUS66 KSEW 190247
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
747 PM PDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Dry and mild weather conditions through Friday. The
next system will arrive this weekend, bringing widespread rain
and breezy winds to the region. Conditions will dry out early next
week as high pressure builds into the region.
&&
.UPDATE...Remains quiet this evening with mostly clear skies.
Short and long term sections remain on track - minor updates made
to the aviation and marine sections.
HPR
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...There`s weak troughing
over western WA today with overall mild conditions. Smoke from the
Bear Gulch wildfire is now drifting south and over Mason, Grays
Harbor, Thurston and western Lewis counties. However, the plume
itself is a more thin/diffuse on satellite and air quality remains
good. Overnight lows will dip into the mid 40s to lower 50s
overnight.
On Friday, there`s weak upper level ridging overhead for a slight
uptick in temperatures. Highs will reach the mid to upper 70s in
the interior. The coast will see 60s with ongoing onshore flow.
Winds at 850 mb remain northerly with smoke still drifting south
from Bear Gulch.
Wetter weather is in store for Saturday-Saturday night as a
Pacific frontal system shifts inland. The model trend on timing
has been slower and it still looks like the interior will remain
dry trough the morning. Rain will then spread inland mid to late
afternoon and evening. We`re in post-frontal onshore flow on
Sunday with additional showers and a convergence zone over the
central sound. All told, we`re looking at good wetting rains along
the coast, Olympics and Cascades with 0.50-1.00" of rain through
the weekend - thus keeping fire danger low. In the lowlands, the
ranges are closer to 0.25-0.50" totals. 33
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...A ridge builds to our
south Monday and Tuesday with zonal flow over western WA. A weak
system moves into B.C. which may clip the coast, otherwise we`re
looking mostly dry. The flow does turn offshore again with
temperatures trending above normal and a few low 80s possible
(like in the Cascade foothills, south sound). Moisture spreads
north mid to late week reintroducing a chance of showers. 33
&&
.AVIATION...Northwesterly flow aloft tonight before transitioning
to more zonal by Friday afternoon. Surface winds largely
northwesterly with most terminals falling within 5-10 kts. SEA,
however is a little breezier with speeds 10-15 kts this evening. The
expectation is that these winds will ease this evening to fall in
line with the rest of the area.
VFR conditions in place over W WA this evening with another round of
coastal marine stratus expected to move in tonight. Models have
waffled on how far east these stratus will make it with confidence
being low on low clouds impacting eastern-most terminals. At this
time, will hold the line for MVFR to IFR conditions going as far
east as OLM, but not much further. Any locations that see lower cigs
will recover by 18Z, resuming widespread VFR conditions.
KSEA...VFR expected to prevail through the TAF period with mostly
clear skies. Any fog formation is expected to remain well west of
the terminal. Breezy conditions this evening from the north-
northwest at 10 to 15 kt. Winds will shift tonight to the northeast
by 06Z and ease to around 5 kt overnight. Northwesterly winds return
late Friday morning with speeds increasing slightly to 6 to 7 kt.
18/29
&&
.MARINE...High pressure over the coastal waters through
Friday. A cold front will traverse the waters this weekend, bringing
an increase in southwesterly winds. Guidance continues to hint that
the greatest chances of seeing Small Craft Advisory winds are in the
central portion of the Strait of Juan de Fuca with probabilities at
30%-50% from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening. In addition,
models also hint at winds briefly meeting small craft criteria for
the interior waters, with the highest probabilities for the northern
interior waters at 50%-70%. Winds will ease on Monday. Another cold
front will move over the waters on Tuesday.
Seas will continue to subside into Friday before building back to 6
to 9 ft over the weekend. Seas will hover around 6 to 8 ft into
early next week.
29/18
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$

NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion