507 FXUS63 KIWX 152245 AFDIWXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 645 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Remaining warm and dry through Friday with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
- Rain chances (20-40%) return this weekend.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 209 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Stretch of dry/warm wx will persist this week. The feature driving this is a high magnitude upper level ridge, and its associated stable/dry column, currently centered over the Great Lakes. This ridge gradually flattens with time this week as northern stream height falls eventually work east through Ontario and Quebec with no impact locally. Light easterly winds will persist at the sfc otherwise through mid-week on the southwest fringe of sfc high pressure. Some very weak nocturnal moisture flux off of Lake Erie in this regime could allow patchy fog/stratus early tomorrow across ne IN and nw OH.
The next opportunity for rain doesn`t arrive until this weekend when a disjointed upper level trough releases east into the region. NBM PoPs are low, generally 20-40%, given lingering differences in the timing/track of the upper system and frontal zone.
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.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 645 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Primarily VFR conditions will persist through the period given strong mid/upper level ridge and very dry/stable airmass. The only exception will be some brief/shallow ground fog at KFWA around sunrise (very similar to this morning) given light easterly winds and ideal radiational cooling.
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.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None.
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DISCUSSION...Steinwedel AVIATION...AGD
NWS IWX Office Area Forecast Discussion