Sierra Blanca, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

342
FXUS64 KEPZ 161133
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
533 AM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 530 AM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
- We will see better thunderstorm chances Tuesday and Wednesday
   as moisture returns to the area.
- A bit less moisture Thursday into the weekend, but isolated
   thunderstorms still possible. Temperatures will remain near
   normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 808 PM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025
We saw some thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, but they
struggled since our moisture levels aloft was somewhat limited.
For Tuesday we will see a little more moisture creep into the
region. Our precipitable water values (PW`s) today will a little
below and inch but on Tuesday those values will creep up closer
or even a little above an inch. At the same time, the upper level
ridge that was centered over the region will drift a little south
and weaken some. With the ridge drifting off and a little extra
moisture that should be enough to get us better thunderstorm
coverage on Tuesday. High temperatures on Tuesday will be a few
degrees cooler than Monday`s highs, but that should still be a
couple of degrees above average.
On Wednesday we will have a complicated pattern across the western
U.S. with a skinny upper level ridge across the intermountain
west, while upper level troughs will be in the Midwest and along
the southern California coast. The Midwest trough may be just
close enough to help get some thunderstorms going Wednesday
afternoon as our PW`s will continue to run just a little above 1
inch. By Thursday the upper level ridge to our west will drift
eastward be centered through Arizona and Utah. The ridge will help
limit, but not eliminate, our thunderstorm chances Thursday
afternoon and evening.
For Friday the upper level ridge will drift well south and that
will open the door to a series of short wave troughs to move
across the region. These troughs will continue to give us a chance
for thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. The main trough looks to
sweep across the area on Sunday morning and it will move out a
lot of moisture from the region. The pattern, very briefly, looks
very Fall like on Sunday, but by the start of next week, the
extended models have the upper level ridge returning to the desert
southwest which would keep us dry and warm our afternoon high
temperatures well above average.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
VFR conditions expected with SCT250 through morning with CU/TCU/CB
development in the afternoon with bases as low as 100. Winds will
be light and variable though favoring from the southeast during
the afternoon and evening hours. SCT SHRA/TSRA is expected in the
afternoon into the evening though confidence on timing and
impacts is too low for mention on this TAF cycle.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 530 AM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Monsoonal moisture remains in place with an attendant chance for
shower and thunderstorms. Min RH values will be near 30 percent
this afternoon with light winds. This pattern will continue
through the end of the week before drier air arrives. Venting will
range poor to good today and tomorrow.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  91  70  89  69 /  20  30  20  20
Sierra Blanca            83  61  83  60 /  20  10  30  20
Las Cruces               87  63  85  63 /  30  40  30  20
Alamogordo               87  63  85  62 /  30  20  40  20
Cloudcroft               64  45  62  46 /  50  20  60  20
Truth or Consequences    86  63  83  61 /  40  40  40  20
Silver City              80  58  78  58 /  60  50  60  30
Deming                   89  64  87  63 /  40  50  30  20
Lordsburg                86  63  83  63 /  50  40  40  20
West El Paso Metro       88  70  86  69 /  20  30  20  20
Dell City                88  63  86  62 /  10  10  20  10
Fort Hancock             89  68  89  67 /  20  10  20  20
Loma Linda               81  62  80  61 /  20  20  30  20
Fabens                   88  67  88  66 /  20  30  20  20
Santa Teresa             87  66  85  66 /  20  40  20  20
White Sands HQ           87  66  86  66 /  30  40  40  20
Jornada Range            86  63  84  63 /  30  40  40  20
Hatch                    89  63  87  63 /  40  40  40  20
Columbus                 88  66  86  66 /  30  40  20  20
Orogrande                86  63  84  62 /  30  30  30  20
Mayhill                  75  50  73  51 /  40  10  70  20
Mescalero                76  50  75  50 /  40  20  60  30
Timberon                 73  49  72  49 /  40  20  50  20
Winston                  78  51  76  51 /  50  40  50  20
Hillsboro                86  59  83  59 /  50  50  50  20
Spaceport                86  61  83  61 /  30  40  40  20
Lake Roberts             80  52  78  52 /  60  50  70  30
Hurley                   83  59  81  59 /  60  50  50  20
Cliff                    88  60  85  60 /  60  40  50  20
Mule Creek               83  57  82  57 /  60  40  40  20
Faywood                  83  61  80  59 /  50  50  50  20
Animas                   87  63  84  64 /  50  40  40  20
Hachita                  86  63  83  62 /  40  40  40  20
Antelope Wells           85  62  83  62 /  50  30  40  20
Cloverdale               80  61  78  61 /  60  40  50  20
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...34-Brown

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion