Silver Gate, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

464
FXUS65 KBYZ 210847
AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
247 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Weather system brings the chance of precipitation, cooler
  temperatures, and gusty northwest winds to the region later
  today into Monday.
- Wet mountain snow (light accumulations) forecast above 9,000 to
  10,000 feet late today into Monday.
- Warm and dry conditions return by the middle of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...
Today will start out mostly sunny and dry as temperatures warm
into the upper 70s and 80s. Over far south-eastern Montana, patchy
fog is possible early, but any fog that does develop will lift
around 9AM. A weather system and associated cold front will then
bring the chance of precipitation, cooler temperatures, and breezy
conditions back across the region later today into Monday. These
conditions will not last long though as warming temperatures and
dry conditions are set to return Tuesday into the second half of
the week as upper level ridging builds back in over the region.
Look for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over
south-central Montana late this afternoon and evening. During this
time, thunderstorms could produce gusty winds and brief heavy
rain, but no severe thunderstorms are expected. The aforementioned
cold front will then move through the region late this evening
into early Monday. This front will bring breezy northwesterly
winds to the region with gusts in the 20s and 30s (mph) common
along and behind it. The best chance (>50 percent) of seeing winds
stronger than this (around 40 mph) is over the higher hills on
the plains. While the frontal passage itself looks to remain
mostly dry for eastern Montana and northern Wyoming, a band of
showers, that may have a few thunderstorms embedded with it, looks
to spread east through the area tonight into Monday as the axis
of the upper level trough moves through the region. By Monday
evening, any remaining showers and/or weak thunderstorms over
eastern Montana and northern Wyoming look to come to an end.
As far as potential precipitation amounts go with this system,
the best chance (>50 percent) of seeing a quarter to around a half
inch of precipitation is over the mountains and foothills. One
thing to note, amounts have increased over the Bighorn Mountains
over the past 24 hours. Over the plains, forecast precipitation
amounts are lower around a couple hundredths to a couple tenths of
an inch, greatest just south and east of Billings towards the
Bighorn/Pryor/Wolf Mountains and lowest in far eastern Montana and
just downstream of the Crazy/Castle/Little Belt/Snowy Mountains
due to upslope and downslope affects respectively.
Along with the winds, the frontal passage will usher in much
cooler temperatures for Monday, when highs are forecast in the 60s
to lower 70s. Over the mountains, much cooler temperatures will
allow snow levels to drop near 9,000 to 10,00 feet, so snow is
generally expected above these levels late today into Monday. As
far as accumulations go, amounts will be light, with there only
being a low, 30 percent chance of seeing 3 or more inches now over
the higher elevations of the Bighorn Mountains. Either way, those
with recreation or travel plans in the high country late today
into Monday should prepare for wintry conditions. Arends
.AVIATION...
Areas of fog will impact far southeast MT again early this morning
(09-15z). Expect reductions to IFR or lower, and fog may spread
far enough north to include K97M & KBHK. Otherwise, VFR will
prevail through the day. An approaching Pacific weather system
will bring showers and a few weak t-storms to the far west this
afternoon. Greatest potential for TS at KLVM is between 21-02z
(30% chance). Showers will become widespread west of Rosebud
County tonight. Expect local MVFR near the foothills, and western
mountains will become obscured tonight as snow levels fall to near
9000 feet. In addition to the precip, a cold frontal passage
tonight will bring a shift to NW winds gusting 15-25 knots. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tdy Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 086 054/066 046/073 049/081 053/082 052/083 052/081
    0/U 66/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
LVM 082 044/063 036/074 042/081 045/081 046/081 046/079
    3/T 84/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
HDN 087 052/065 042/073 044/082 047/082 047/084 047/082
    0/U 46/W    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 085 053/069 046/074 048/083 050/082 049/084 050/083
    0/U 13/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
4BQ 083 054/065 047/071 048/079 050/081 050/082 051/081
    0/U 02/W    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 084 047/072 044/074 046/082 049/081 047/082 049/081
    0/U 02/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 083 047/061 041/071 042/080 046/081 047/082 046/080
    0/U 27/T    30/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings

NWS BYZ Office Area Forecast Discussion