Skokie, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

594
FXUS63 KLOT 270744
AFDLOT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
244 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
-  Patchy fog will be possible near and north of I-90 through
   the early morning.
-  Dry and unseasonably warm daytime conditions through next
   week will lead to worsening drought.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Early this morning, a localized fog and low-hanging stratus
bank is meandering about our northern-most counties and up into
far southern WI. Immediately south of this bank is a frontal
boundary that`s become stalled near the I-90 corridor. Areas of
fog look to remain over areas near and north of I-90 into the
early morning with some localized instances of dense fog
possible. Elsewhere, we`re seeing clear skies with temperatures
ranging from the 50 across outlying areas to the 60s in the city
and around the interior metro area.
Today will be another unseasonably warm day. Temperatures
yesterday overperformed by a couple of degrees from what
guidance was showing with much of our CWA having made it into
the middle 80s, and it looks as though that may be the case
again today. Most camps resolve highs in the lower to middle
80s, not much change from 24 hours ago. However, low levels
temps are anticipated to be a couple of degrees warmer than
yesterday and guidance resolves very modest surface warm
advection today ahead of an approaching cold front. And with
another dry and sunny day in store, opted to bump high
temperatures in the forecast just a couple of degrees from
guidance to get middle and upper 80s area-wide.
A cold front that`s currently working east across MN will pivot
across WI today and become more zonally-oriented before pushing
south across the CWA late this evening. This cold front won`t
amount to any precip, but a few pieces of high-res guidance,
specifically the HRRR, ARW, and FV3, are pretty excited about a
push of breezy NNE winds behind this front late tonight across
our northern CWA and especially over Lake Michigan toward the
Lake (IL) and northern Cook County shores. Did boost winds a
little bit in the forecast for this potential, but may have to
even moreso on the dayshift as confidence builds.
There is uncertainty in the degree of cooling that we`ll see
behind this front and what it means for tomorrow`s temperatures,
particularly near and north of I-80. Modeled high temps north
of I- 90 range from the lower 70s to around 80 degrees.
Regardless, onshore flow during the day should bring the coolest
conditions tomorrow to areas near and downwind of the lake.
Downtown Chicago is favored to max out in the lower 70s while
inland areas are forecast to reach the lower and middle 80s.
The regional pattern continues to look awfully quiet next week.
Conditions will remain unseasonably mild with more 80s forecast
into next week. Another cold front will drop move through the
area sometime during the middle of next week and medium-range
guidance favors slightly cooler conditions for the back half of
the week.
Doom
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Light winds at press time should trend southwesterly by daybreak
and increase to 10 to 12 kt by midday. Wind magnitudes will ease
after sunset this evening. A weak cold front with an associated
northwesterly wind shift should then move through the terminals
toward the very end of the TAF period. Incoming model guidance
offers quite a bit of variance on the arrival timing of the
front, so will take a middle of the road approach and advertise
he wind shift at around 03Z at RFD, 04Z at DPA/ORD, and then 06Z
at MDW. Adjustments in timing may be needed as trends become
established later today.
The only other aviation concern is a bank of low stratus
drifting westward along the Wisconsin state line. Over the past
hour or so, recent RGB nighttime microphysics shows some
slowing in the westward movement of the cloud bank, while
surface observations show a lowering of cloud bases within (down
to 400 feet at JVL at press time). Confidence in exactly how
the cloud bank evolves over the next few hours is lower than
average, though do have growing concern a period of LIFR if not
even VLIFR may materialize in close proximity to RFD either due
to very low cloud bases and/or fog. For now, will lower
conditions in the inherited TEMPO (to 3SM BR and 400 feet cigs),
extend the timing to go through 10Z, and will monitor
observations to inform AMDs. Should the clouds reach RFD, they
should lift (both bases and in areal extent northward toward
Wisconsin) after daybreak as southwesterly steering flow becomes
established.
Borchardt
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
Visit us at weather.gov/chicago

NWS LOT Office Area Forecast Discussion