Springbrook, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

306
FXUS63 KBIS 230549
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1249 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog possible tonight into early Tuesday morning.
- Above average temperatures and dry conditions through the
  week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The forecast remains on track.
UPDATE
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Thunderstorms have diminished as they have lost diurnal heating
after sunset. The rest of the night will be monitoring for the
potential for fog. Patchy fog remains in the forecast as there
are some uncertainties on overnight RH values and wind.
Currently the satellite is showing some clouds lingering in
central portions. Have updated sky cover based on the latest
satellite trends.
UPDATE
Issued at 659 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
A boundary of uncapped mix layer cape up to 1000 J/KG in
southwestern North Dakota has fired off a few thunderstorms
early this evening. Shear is very minimal today, and cape
profiles are generally skinny. The soon to be setting sun should
also limit the duration of these thunderstorms. Thus the threat
for severe weather is low. Added in some PoPs to account for
these storms through the evening. These should diminish around
or shortly after sunset given their diurnal nature.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
An upper level trough across the Northern Rockies will dive
south of North Dakota bringing no precipitation to the state.
A cold front continues to progress across western North Dakota
bringing forth a wind shift to westerly this afternoon.
Overnight low temperatures are forecast to drop down into the
mid 40s to lower 50s across the state. Increasing clouds will
come with the cold front before clear skies follow. Hi-res
models are hinting that patchy fog could return this morning
across much of central and eastern North Dakota. Patchy fog will
likely remain shallow in nature.
Tomorrow, an upper level ridge is forecast to stretch
northeasterly from the Pacific northwest into the Hudson Bay.
Upper level ridging will continue the quiet pattern across North
Dakota. The upper level ridge will then regress later this week
from the Hudson Bay but remain over the Northern Plains. This
will lead to temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s through the
week. There are no to very low chances of precipitation this
week which will lead to dry conditions. The ensembles remain
pretty consistent on zonal flow returning next week, while the
clusters differ with ridging persisting through early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Patchy fog is possible again tonight into Tuesday morning.
However, with sustained light northwesterly winds (unfavorable
wind for radiational/field fog development) across most of
western through central ND, confidence is too low to add into
the TAFs at this time. Otherwise, VFR ceilings and visibility
are expected through the period.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Telken

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion