Stapleton, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

725
FXUS64 KMOB 211839
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
139 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New Discussion, Marine...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
A central states upper trof progresses into the eastern states
through Monday and weakens, with a vigorous system meanwhile diving
from the northwest states towards the central Plains. The pattern
evolves into a strongly positively tilted upper trof by Tuesday
which stretches from the Plains to the Great Lakes, then transitions
to a large meridionally oriented upper trof over the eastern states
by Friday. In response to this pattern, a surface low develops over
the southern/central Plains then moves off across the Great Lakes
region and meanwhile brings a cold front through the forecast area
Thursday night. May see some isolated convection over the southern
portion of the area on Monday due to the sea breeze and a series of
shortwaves, then any convective development that occurs on Tuesday
looks too limited in coverage to mention. Have gone with slight
chance to chance pops for the central and western portions of the
area on Wednesday, then mostly likely pops follow for Thursday with
the approach of the front along with a good improvement in deep
layer moisture. May see some strong storms develop late Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening depending on whether or not lower
level lapse rates improve. For Friday, have stayed with slight
chance to chance pops as a series of shortwaves move across the area
in the wake of the front. Saturday and Sunday will be mostly dry
except for small pops near the coast and a portion of south central
Alabama where some isentropic lift may eke out some convection. A
low risk of rip currents is anticipated through Thursday. Lows
tonight through Tuesday night range from the mid to upper 60s inland
to the lower 70s near the coast then trend warmer for Wednesday
night which range from around 70 inland to the mid 70s at the
coast. Progressively cooler lows follow in the wake of the cold
front, and by Friday night (and Saturday night) look to range from
around 60 well inland to the mid/upper 60s at the coast. Highs on
Monday through Wednesday tend to range from the upper 80s at the
coast to the lower 90s elsewhere. Thursday will see highs in the
mid to upper 80s, then Friday and Saturday will be mostly in the
mid 80s. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
VFR conditions generally prevail through the period, outside of
temporary reductions in visibility and ceilings in any storms.
Isolated showers and storms cannot be ruled out throughout the
afternoon and into the early evening hours. Winds will continue to
turn southerly to southeasterly through the afternoon with light
and variable winds overnight. 07/mb
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
A light to moderate easterly to southeasterly flow prevails through
Tuesday then turns southerly to southwesterly for Wednesday and
Thursday. Winds become northwesterly late Thursday night into Friday
morning as a cold front moves through. No other impacts are
anticipated other than higher winds and seas near storms. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      69  89  68  90  69  91  72  87 /  10  20   0  10  10  20  40  60
Pensacola   72  88  72  89  72  89  75  87 /  10  20   0  10   0  10  30  60
Destin      73  87  73  87  74  88  76  86 /   0  10   0   0   0  10  20  60
Evergreen   66  93  65  94  66  94  70  88 /  20  10   0   0   0  10  30  60
Waynesboro  66  90  65  92  67  92  69  84 /  20  10   0  10   0  30  50  50
Camden      66  91  67  93  68  92  69  84 /  20  10   0   0   0  10  40  60
Crestview   66  92  65  93  66  92  70  88 /  10  20   0   0   0  10  20  60
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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NWS MOB Office Area Forecast Discussion