Stony Fork, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

774
FXUS61 KRNK 161750
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
150 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low may bring an opportunity for light rain through
Wednesday morning. Dry conditions return for the latter half of
the week, with another increase in rain chances early next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
1) Mostly cloudy and breezy through this afternoon.
2) Clouds continue overnight, along with a few showers possible.
Low pressure is currently centered near Virginia Beach this
afternoon with most rain confined to right along the coastline.
A few passing showers are possible as they rotate in from the
northeast, with this showery potential continuing into the
overnight hours. Rain should remain rather light with most
locations seeing less than 0.25" of rain through Wednesday
morning.
Clouds will continue into the overnight and into Wednesday
morning, but coverage of rain will be even less. However, a few
very isolated afternoon showers still possible near the Blue
Ridge. Temperatures this afternoon, even with cloud cover, will
rise into the low/mid 70s. Mid upper 60s in the mountains. A
little more sun on Wednesday should allow temperatures to be 2
to 5 degrees warmer by tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
1) Coastal low to move northeast later this week.
2) Calm and warm weather resumes.
A coastal low pressure system will remain just east of the Virginia
coast but will be dragged northeastward into the main flow later
this week. Some remnant precipitation may linger in the area early
Thursday morning but rain chances are low and confined to the more
eastern counties. A separate 500mb low stays in the southeastern
United States briefly before replaced by ridging. Heights will rise
a little and provide warmer than normal temperatures. The warmest
day looks to be Friday with highs in the upper 80s in the Piedmont
and southside VA. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s
(possibly upper 40s at higher elevations) while dew points will be
in the lower 50s to lower 60s. Cloud cover will decrease toward the
weekend as the coastal low moves away.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Message:
1) Front to bring chance of precipitation early next week
A frontal system looks to dip as far south as the Mid-Atlantic by
this weekend as a cold front but immediately retreat northward as a
warm front. Model guidance suggests a heavy shift in wind direction
from northerly to easterly/southeasterly to reflect this behavior.
Winds may pick up slightly, especially at higher elevations, with
gusts between 10-20 mph. As the frontal system moves throughout the
region, there is a small chance of thunderstorm development, but
this will be battling against a relatively stable atmosphere. A
large surface high pressure system will move eastward across New
England and wedge into the mountains around the same time period.
The core of the surface high will move through but residual higher
pressure will remain in the Mid-Atlantic and assist in keeping the
atmosphere stable. After all this transpires, the forecast gets
messy due to model disagreement. There is a signal of a trough or
cutoff low to make its way from the Great Plains, but there is too
much uncertainty on its formation location, potency, and trajectory.
Otherwise, temperatures will relatively stay the same for the
forecast period as it has been for the past several days. High
temperatures will be in the mid-70s to lower 80s, lows will be in
the mid-50s to lower 60s, and dew points will be in the mid-50s to
mid-60s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Tuesday...
A few passing showers possible through the overnight, but these
will remain light and generally brief. CIGS low end VFR across
the mountains, should lower to at least MVFR. Some IFR possible
overnight, but confidence is not high enough to add to any
particular terminal at the moment. For now have opted to keep
most locations within MVFR, with perhaps brief IFR/LIFR at LWB
due to fog right before daybreak tomorrow morning.
Mostly dry after sunrise Wednesday with BKN-OVC skies gradually
clearing throughout the day. VFR for all terminals after any
fog dissipates.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
Drier and sunnier weather returns again for Thursday and Friday,
but the chance for showers or perhaps an isolated thunderstorm
returns for the weekend and into early next week.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...BMG

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion