Strafford, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

917
FXUS63 KSGF 150830
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
330 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot weather continues, coupled with scattered afternoon shower
  and thunderstorm chances (15-40%). Downburst wind gusts up to
  40-50 mph could occur with any stronger storms, especially
  Monday afternoon.
- A mid-week pattern change will initiate a cooling trend with
  better rain chances (30-60%) Wednesday into Thursday.
  Lingering low rain chances continue into the weekend.
- Despite the daily chances of rain, total rainfall will be
  modest this week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Water vapor imagery illustrates well the low pressure center over
the High Plains, the cutoff low over the southeast, and the steep
ridging in between. The Plains troughing is increasingly invading
the Ozarks, wrapping in moisture from the southeast and sending
fronts across Missouri. It will take a couple of days to fully break
us out from under our ridge, though.
Some mid-level forcing on the warm side of the stationary front in
the eastern Ozarks (and locally higher moisture) has allowed for
some isolated thunderstorms since yesterday evening in spite of the
capping inversion. These have lasted impressively late into the
night, but the latest CAM runs have them dropping off by 4 a.m.
Impacts have been few and far between, with only lightning and
perhaps some river rises in Shannon county due to a slow moving,
persistent cell.
We`ll start Monday morning with cloudy skies given all the mid-level
moisture that has been pulled into the area. High pressure will
still dominate for a couple of days, and we`ll see highs in the low
90s to start the week. The trough will push closer throughout the
day, and by late afternoon there will be enough moisture,
instability, and lift to support more thunderstorms primarily east
of Hwy 39. PoPs max out at 30% given scattered coverage, and the
main threats will be lightning and heavy rain. There is also the
chance for downburst wind gusts as these storms may be pulse-like in
nature. Total rain accumulations will be light for the majority of
the area.
Thunderstorm activity is expected to diminish around midnight.
Clouds will break up a bit overnight, and lows will be in the 60s.
The cold front currently across western Kansas takes its sweet time
to get here, so highs Tuesday will again be in the 90s (though low
90s, so we`re getting there). Since the pattern is expected to hold,
we will again see a 20-40% chance for scattered afternoon
thunderstorms once daytime heating causes us to reach convective
temperature. The most likely area shifts a bit to the west, toward
the incoming front, moreso along and west of Hwy 65.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Tuesday`s afternoon convection looks to wrap up by early evening
with too much mid-level warming inhibiting free ascent. The night
looks quiet with lows a tad cooler, especially in the eastern Ozarks
where cloud cover will be minimal.
The front approaches Wednesday morning (yay). It moves very slowly
and brings widespread 30-60% rain chances Wednesday and Thursday.
Ensembles have totals through Thursday at between half and three-
quarters of an inch. This activity is not expected to pose a
flooding/excessive rainfall hazard, but rather be a nice fall
wetting rain that we could certainly use given current drought
conditions.
This system continues to impact the Ozarks through the weekend as it
throws a series of shortwaves across the area. The most
noticeable difference though will be the decrease in
temperatures, as models continue to indicate lower temperatures
around normal this weekend going into next week. While
interquartile NBM temperature spreads are still 5-6 degrees
beyond day 6, they are pretty small for the extended timeframe,
and in any case indicate temperatures 10-15 degrees cooler than
the hottest days we saw in the last week. Here`s hoping fall
sticks around this time.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Isolated showers and storms currently in eastern Kansas and
east-central Missouri, but are not expected to impact
airfields. VFR conditions expected to prevail through the
period with broken ceilings at 15-20 kft and light winds.
Scattered thunderstorms expected after 18Z through 00Z which
may temporarily reduce CIG/VIS to MVFR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Values listed below are for sites where the forecast is within
5 degrees of a record.
Record High Temperatures:
September 16:
KSGF: 95/2019
KVIH: 96/1954
September 17:
KSGF: 96/1953
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
September 15:
KSGF: 74/1936
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Nelson
LONG TERM...Nelson
AVIATION...Nelson
CLIMATE...Nelson

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion