Sundance, Wyoming Weather Forecast Discussion

113
FXUS63 KUNR 281115
AFDUNR
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
515 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly dry with above average temperatures through Thursday
- Gusty southerly winds at times through Tuesday
- Elevated fire weather conditions at times
&&
.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Saturday)
Issued at 203 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
07z surface analysis had high over the Midwest with lee trough
from central MT into central CO. Decent gradient inbetween
creating 35kt low level jet per model output/KUDX WSR-88D VAD wind
profile. Some of the wind making it to the ground per surface
observations along the Pine Ridge, higher elevations of the Black
Hills, and northern foothills areas. Water vapour loop had upper
ridge over the central CONUS with upper low over the southwest
CONUS. Plenty of stars out there piercing the night sky.
Today through Tuesday, upper ridge very slowly moves
east/northeast as upper trough approaches the northwest CONUS. CWA
will be under southwest flow aloft with limited moisture,
although there will be some mid-level moisture for today/Monday. A
couple CAMs suggest isolated high-based convection could occur in
the late afternoon/evening hours, but chances too low to put in
forecast at this time. Lee trough/surface high position changes
little, so gusty southerly winds (25-40kt boundary layer winds)
will continue given best gradient east of the Black Hills and
HREF/NBM chance of >=45mph gusts 90F
east of the Black Hills 50-90% today, 30-50% Monday/Tuesday.
Wednesday/Thursday, most ensemble guidance has slowed the exit of
the upper ridge to our east which means toastier MaxT/s under
sustained southwest flow aloft. Lower 90s within reach Thursday
for many folks east of the Black Hills. Friday into next weekend,
upper trough eventually shows up, but confidence not high for
timing. When it arrives, cooler temperatures slide in with PoPs
slowly appearing.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued At 513 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Expect VFR conditions through the period. Southerly winds will
gusts to 35kts east of the Black Hills through much of the period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 203 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Elevated fire danger continues through Tuesday as sustained dry
and unseasonably warm weather continues. Gusty southerly winds
continue, especially east of the Black Hills. MinRH in the upper
teens/20s (some 30s central SD). Joint probability of critical
fire weather conditions (=25mph gusts) 

NWS UNR Office Area Forecast Discussion