Sunnyside, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

234
FXUS62 KTAE 271757
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
157 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 127 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
The cold front is slowly exiting our area to the east this
afternoon with some drier air in its wake. PWATs are quickly
falling with values around 1.2 to 1.4 inches over most of the area
and 1.4 to 1.7 inches in the southeast Big Bend. A few isolated
showers and storms are still possible, mainly near I-75 down into
the eastern Big Bend. Most of these will fade in the evening.
Patchy fog will develop again tonight with the best chances over
south Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. Lows will be in the upper
60s to near 70.
On Sunday, as Tropical Depression Nine moves northward parallel to
the Florida East Coast, moisture will sneak back in from the east
thanks to the flow around TD 9. PWATs increase to 1.4 to 1.6
inches to the east, but dry air remains firmly entrenched to the
west. A weak surface trough will accompany this increase in
moisture, which may be enough for some isolated showers late
afternoon into the evening across the Florida Big Bend and into
south Georgia. Impacts will be little to none as most of these
showers should be light. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower
90s.
&&
.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 127 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
As TD 9 (likely Imelda) continues to lift north and strengthen
over the Gulf Stream, we will continue to be in east to northeast
flow with moisture coming from the Atlantic. A few showers and
storms will be possible over the Eastern Time Zone counties again
Monday afternoon. By Tuesday and Wednesday, slightly drier air
starts to build in which should bring our rain chances back down
to less than 10%. Highs will be in the mid 80s to near 90 with
lows in the upper 60s.
Strong high pressure begins to build over the Northeast US down
the Appalachians and into the Mississippi Valley as a backdoor
cold front slips southward Wednesday into Thursday in TD
9/Imelda`s wake. This will usher in cooler, drier air down the
spine of the Appalachians. It will also bring breezy winds as the
pressure gradient tightens substantially over the area with gusts
of 20-30 mph possible. Right now, there is about a 10-20% chance
of gusts over 30 mph over our land areas Thursday and Friday
afternoons. There is a larger amount of spread than normal in the
temperature guidance to round out next week, but it does appear to
be slightly more fall-like as we enter October.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Ceilings continue to increase early this afternoon with VFR expected
all terminals, although cannot rule out brief MVFR. Added a PROB30
at VLD where a TSRA is possible until around 00Z. In the wake of
the cold frontal passage, winds will be north to northeast with
a weak enough pressure gradient to support a seabreeze at ECP,
where winds back around to WSW late this aftn. Guidance continues
to support restrictions to IFR in fog/low clouds at VLD around
sunrise Sunday, and there is now support for these conditions to
spread as far west as ABY, where a TEMPO for MVFR was added.
On Sunday, winds veer around to a more northeasterly direction.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 127 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Some bouts of nocturnal cautionary-level winds are possible over
the next few nights with about a 20-30% chance each night though
Tuesday night. There is then a medium chance (40-60%) of small
craft advisory winds mid to late week with a low (10%) chance of
gale force gusts.
From CWF Synopsis:
Gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes are expected tonight and
continuing through the early part of the week as Tropical
Depression Nine parallels the Florida East Coast and high pressure
noses down from New England into the Mississippi Valley. In this
pattern, some east-northeasterly nocturnal wind surges are
possible, which may result in near cautionary-level winds at times
over the offshore waters. By mid to late week, the pressure
gradient tightens substantially between a strong area of high
pressure over the Northeast and Appalachians and what will likely
be Imelda over the western Atlantic. This will likely result in
advisory conditions and building seas late week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 127 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
A cold front exits the area this afternoon with slightly drier air
in its wake. A few showers and maybe a thunderstorm are possible
Sunday and Monday afternoons, mainly near the Suwannee Valley into
the I-75 corridor of south Georgia. Otherwise, transport winds will
become northerly to northeasterly at 10-15 mph each afternoon.
Combined with high mixing heights, expect good to high dispersions
each afternoon with the highest dispersions occurring Sunday. Min
RH values will remain well above critical levels over the next 3
days.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 127 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
While the rain over the last few days has been beneficial and
much needed, drought conditions will likely prevail for much of
the area. Over the next 7 days, most areas will see little to no
rain, and what rain does fall will likely be light with no flood
concerns on the horizon.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   86  68  89  70 /  20   0  10  10
Panama City   87  70  90  71 /  10   0   0  10
Dothan        86  66  88  67 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        86  68  88  69 /  10   0   0  10
Valdosta      86  68  89  69 /  30  10  20  10
Cross City    87  70  91  71 /  50  10  20  20
Apalachicola  85  71  87  72 /  20   0   0  20
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Young

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion