Sunset Island, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

056
FXUS62 KMFL 231751
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
151 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Mid level zonal flow to weak mid level ridging will prevail across
South Florida through the middle of the week. At the surface, the
region will remain on the western periphery of an area of high
pressure centered out in the western Atlantic. This will help to
promote a light synoptic easterly wind flow across the region
through the middle of the week. Plenty of deep layer moisture will
continue to remain in place for the rest of this afternoon and
into Wednesday as well and the latest guidance continues to show
PWAT values generally hovering between 2.1 and 2.3 inches across
most of South Florida. With a lack of mid level forcing over the
region, convective initiation this afternoon as well as Wednesday
afternoon will be sea breeze driven as these boundaries develop
and push inland.
With the wind flow remaining rather light at the surface combined
with the lack of mid level forcing, storm motion this afternoon
and then again on Wednesday will be slow and generally driven by
the mesoscale boundaries such as the sea breezes and the
development of thunderstorm outflow boundaries. While the highest
chances of showers and thunderstorms will remain over the interior
portions each afternoon, convection will have the opportunity to
drift back towards the east coast metro areas during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. With 500 mb temperatures
ranging between -6.5 and -7.5C combined with CAPE values
increasing and ranging between 3500 and 4000 J/kg, this will allow
for the potential for some of the thunderstorms to become strong
this afternoon and then again on Wednesday afternoon. The main
threats with the stronger convection will be gusty winds ranging
between 45 and 55 mph, heavy downpours, frequent lightning
strikes, and small hail. Heavy downpours associated with slow
moving storms could create the potential for localized flooding
both this afternoon and then again on Wednesday afternoon over the
low lying and poor drainage areas.
High temperatures through this afternoon and Wednesday will remain
around climatological normals as they will generally rise into the
upper 80s and lower 90s each day.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 104 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Seasonal conditions are expected Thursday and Friday with convection
both days generally sea-breeze driven during the afternoon and early
evening hours. Things get more interesting this weekend as a trough
dives into the Gulf and a frontal boundary approaches the area and
likely stalls in the vicinity of Lake Okeechobee. At the same time,
a disturbance currently east of the Leeward Island has a medium
chance of development over the next 7 days. While the surface front
and upper level trough should steer any potential development away
from South FL, some peripheral impacts could be possible if there is
any development, so this system is worth watching as the week
progresses. Regardless, the frontal boundary stalling in the
vicinity of Lake Okeechobee will allow the atmosphere locally to
remain fairly saturated which is what forecast soundings show, with
PWAT values generally 2.1-2.3 inches. Expect the unsettled weather
to continue through the remainder of the extended forecast period.
Temperatures will remain slightly above normal through the extended
period with highs each day in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Low temps
will generally range from the lower 70s around the lake, to mid and
upper 70s over the rest of South FL.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Scattered showers and storms will continue to develop and push
towards the interior as the afternoon progresses. These storms may
try to drift back towards the east coast terminals later this
afternoon into the early evening hours. Winds will generally
remain easterly near 10 kts this afternoon before becoming light
and variable this evening. At KAPF, winds will become WSW this
afternoon near 10 kts as the Gulf breeze pushes inland.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Gentle easterly winds expected over the area waters through mid
week, with brief west to southwesterly winds during the afternoon
over the near shore Gulf waters. Seas in the Atlantic generally 2-3
ft and a foot or less in the Gulf. Scattered thunderstorms today and
Wednesday may result in locally hazardous winds and seas.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Lingering NE swell will result in an elevated risk of rip currents
through mid week for the Palm Beaches.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  90  78  91 /  40  60  30  60
West Kendall     77  91  76  91 /  30  60  20  70
Opa-Locka        78  92  78  91 /  40  60  30  60
Homestead        77  90  77  90 /  30  60  30  60
Fort Lauderdale  78  89  78  90 /  40  60  30  60
N Ft Lauderdale  78  90  78  91 /  40  60  20  60
Pembroke Pines   78  92  78  93 /  40  60  20  60
West Palm Beach  77  90  78  90 /  40  60  20  50
Boca Raton       77  91  77  91 /  40  60  20  50
Naples           76  92  77  91 /  40  60  20  50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...CWC

NWS MFL Office Area Forecast Discussion