Sunset, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

565
FXUS62 KMFL 130439
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1239 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
- Heavy rainfall over saturated locales today may result in
   additional isolated urban flooding concerns.
- Minor coastal flooding is possible between 1.5 to 2 hours of
   high tide along the east coast of South Florida.
- Frequent to excessive cloud to ground lightning is possible
   with the strongest storms today. When Thunder Roars, Go
   Indoors.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1235 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
4z RTMA analysis this morning indicates much of the same as a
saturated atmospheric profile combined with synoptic influences
result in a continued active weather regime for our area.
Mesoanalysis early this morning depicts the mid-level shortwave
still present in the 500mb layer with southwesterly 500mb flow still
advecting a moist mid-level airmass from the Caribbean into the
region. A colder pool of air aloft still remains in place with
current 500mb temperatures in the -7C to -8C range. A weak surface
frontal boundary also remains in place across the southern extent of
our region with light northerly flow prevailing, veering slightly
more onshore along both coasts. The atmosphere remains quite
saturated with recent ACARS and 00z MFL upper air soundings
depicting a classic skinny CAPE profile with little dry air from the
surface all the way up to 300mb. Winds along the immediate east
coast are converging (light northeasterly off the ocean, more of a
westerly flow component from the land) which may result in an end to
the nice lull in overland activity we are seeing on radar at the
moment as coastal convergence could allow for activity to flare up
during the late overnight hours along or just offshore of the east
coast over the warm and unstable Gulfstream waters. The latest
mesoscale models lean more towards the latter scenario, but this
will be something we will continue to monitor through the remainder
of the early to mid morning hours.
Technical ingredients out of the way, the bottom line is that today
will serve as the transition between the ongoing active wet period
we have seen over the last week and a period of drier weather for
South Florida beginning during the second half of the weekend. While
the threat of heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be slightly
lower today compared to the last several days, saturated soils from
a rinse and repeat pattern combined with slow storm motion may
result in one or two pockets of localized flooding both with
potential early to mid morning activity and a second round of
diurnal convection this afternoon. While widespread rainfall amounts
today are forecast in the 0.5 to 1 inch range, reasonable worst case
rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches of rainfall remain possible in
isolated areas. If these totals occur over the urban metro,
additional localized flooding concerns may materialize. Although
localized flooding will be our main concern, the cooler temperatures
aloft will set the stage for frequent to excessive cloud to ground
lightning with the most robust storms this afternoon. Wet
microbursts may also result in wind gusts up to 40 mph in the
strongest storms this afternoon.
With the advection of the axis of expansive mid-level troughing to
the east of the region on Sunday combined with the weak frontal
boundary sliding further south into the Florida Keys, shower and
thunderstorm activity will trend lower as the most favorable
parameters for storm activity also push further south and east.
However, moisture on the north side of the boundary will still be
conducive enough for afternoon showers and storms just not on the
robust and widespread scale we have been used to seeing over the
last several days. High temperatures will trend higher on Sunday due
to the lower coverage of convection and cloud debris, with
forecasted high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s region wide.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1235 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Model guidance continues to depict the current mid-level trough
slowing down with a piece of mid-level energy remaining behind and
becoming a cut off low just offshore or along the southeastern
United States coast early next week. Blocked by mid-level ridging to
the east over the western Atlantic waters, the cut-off low will
remain in place over the southeastern United States coastline
through the mid work-week period before drifting northeastward out
ahead of the next longwave trough. At the surface, cyclogenesis will
try to take place as a very broad area of low pressure tries to
develop in the Atlantic offshore of the Georgia/Northern Florida
coastline during the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. The placement of this
surface low may help to drag in some reinforcing drier air into
South Florida from the north. Similar to last night`s thinking,
uncertainty remains a bit higher for this part of the forecast as
the guidance still remains in disagreement with exactly how far
south the drier air is able to push with the frontal boundary
remaining stalled out over the Straits. While there will still be
enough moisture in place to support daily convection chances,
coverage will not be as high is it has been over the past couple o
days. During this early to mid week timeframe, the highest daily
rain chances will remain across our southern locales with the
greatest timing of activity coinciding with the afternoon hours as
sea-breeze boundaries move inland and collide.
Moving towards the middle to late portion of the work week,
uncertainty rises in the forecast even further as some of the longer
term guidance is suggesting that what is left of that frontal
boundary stalled out in the Straits gets dragged back up to the
north over the region and deep layer moisture advection increases
once again. Guidance does remain in disagreement in regards to what
is actually left of the front and how far north it actually makes
it. However, as easterly wind flow increases along with the
possibility of deep layer moisture moving back into portions of the
region, the latest forecast continues to take a blend of the model
guidance and increases the chances of showers and storms area wide
during this time frame. High temperatures during the middle of the
week will continue to remain around climatological normals and will
rise into the upper 80s to around 90.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Light and variable winds this morning will veer onshore by the early
afternoon hours becoming NErly at east coast terminals and NWrly at
KAPF. Some uncertainty regarding remainder of the overnight period
with a signal of SHRA/TSRA developing near or just offshore of east
coast terminals. Higher confidence for afternoon SHRA/TSRA that may
bring sub-MVFR cigs and vis at any terminal impact along with
erratic wind shifts.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1235 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
A gentle to moderate north to northeasterly breeze will continue
across most of the local waters into early next week. Seas across
the Atlantic waters will generally remain between 2 to 4 feet
through early next week while seas across the Gulf waters remain at
1 to 3 feet. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be
possible across the local waters today before decreasing in coverage
beginning on Sunday. Periods of rough seas and gusty winds will be
possible each day near the stronger thunderstorms.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1235 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Minor coastal flooding is possible along the east coast of South
Florida today within 1.5 to 2 hours of high tide. A Coastal Flood
Statement remains in effect until 4pm this afternoon. A moderate
risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Palm Beaches
through the rest of the weekend as onshore flow continues and a
northeasterly swell in the Atlantic waters lingers.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            74  89  76  90 /  40  40  30  40
West Kendall     72  89  73  90 /  30  40  20  40
Opa-Locka        74  90  75  91 /  30  40  20  40
Homestead        73  89  74  89 /  40  40  30  40
Fort Lauderdale  74  89  76  89 /  40  30  30  40
N Ft Lauderdale  74  89  76  90 /  30  30  20  40
Pembroke Pines   74  91  75  92 /  30  40  20  40
West Palm Beach  74  89  74  89 /  30  30  20  30
Boca Raton       74  90  74  91 /  30  30  20  30
Naples           73  89  74  90 /  30  30  20  30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...Hadi

NWS MFL Office Area Forecast Discussion