Sunspot, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

401
FXUS64 KEPZ 090409
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1009 PM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1008 PM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
- Temperatures will be 5 to 8 degrees above average through the
  end of the week.
- Tuesday and Wednesday will be mainly dry, just a slight chance
  for thunderstorms in area mountains.
- Moisture returns Thursday and beyond for chances of isolated
  thunderstorms focused west of the Divide initially then pushing
  east into the Rio Grande Valley by Friday into Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1008 PM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Upper level high pressure will continue to control our weather
tonight and into Tuesday. That will keep us mainly dry and help
afternoon high temperatures run 5 to 7 degrees above average.
There may be just enough moisture for a few short lived showers
and thunderstorms in the mountains, but they won`t last long or
produce much rain. By Wednesday, the upper level ridge will set up
home for a few days over west Texas, while at the same time an
upper level trough will be coming into the west coast of
California. The circulation around these two features will pull up
a narrow ribbon of moisture from the south. On Wednesday, the
narrow moisture plume will be centered over far eastern Arizona.
We may see a few storms develop right along the New Mexico and
Arizona border. The rest of the area will stay dry, with high
temperatures still running around 5 degrees above average. By
Thursday, the narrow ribbon of moisture will push a little east
and that will be enough to help fuel some thunderstorms mainly
east of the Continental Divide. But like Wednesday, most of the
region will stay high and dry with high temperatures still running
around 5 degrees above average.
By Friday the ribbon of moisture will slowly push a little further
east to central New Mexico. This moisture plume is not very
strong, so I`m not expecting a whole lot of thunderstorm activity,
but hey, any rain we can get is a good thing. For Saturday and
Sunday the narrow plume of moisture will be over the eastern part
of the area, mainly east of the Rio Grande, which will lead to
isolated to scattered thunderstorms both afternoons. By next
Monday, the upper level ridge to our east will push back west
some, while the upper level trough to our west deepens a little
further. This will push the moisture plume back west of the Rio
Grande and with the dynamics of the upper level trough to our
west, a few storms may be strong. Temperature for this coming
weekend into the start of next week, look to continue to run a few
degrees above average.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1008 PM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Drier air has moved into the region and that will limit our clouds
and rain chances for at least the next 24 hours. For tonight we
will have unlimited ceilings except for KTCS which may see a
ceiling of BKN250 for the next few hours. Sky conditions on
Tuesday will be similar to what we saw on Monday with puffy cu
clouds developing during the afternoon which will lead to off and
on ceilings of SCT-BKN120. Our winds tonight will be light. Again
the one exception will be KTCS, which may see some breezy north or
northwest winds as thunderstorms pass to their north. During the
day on Tuesday, we will see our surface winds from the south or
southwest and we may see a few hours of low end gusty winds during
the afternoon. VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1110 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Above normal temperatures are expected through much of the
upcoming week with min RH`s in the mid teens to lower 20s east and
20s west and mountains. The moisture through Thursday will remain
focused west of the Continental Divide where isolated
thunderstorms will be possible daily. A breakdown of upper ridge
just to our east will push moisture further east going into the
end of the week with isolated to scattered storms areawide by
Friday. Winds generally under 15 mph but will start to increase
northern areas going into Thu/Fri.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  72  98  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            61  91  61  91 /   0  10  10   0
Las Cruces               65  93  66  93 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               68  94  69  94 /   0  10   0   0
Cloudcroft               50  70  50  71 /   0  10  10  10
Truth or Consequences    66  92  66  92 /  10  10  10   0
Silver City              61  87  62  86 /   0  10  10  10
Deming                   64  96  66  96 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                66  93  67  92 /   0  10  10  10
West El Paso Metro       72  95  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                63  95  65  95 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Hancock             68  97  70  96 /   0  10   0   0
Loma Linda               64  88  65  88 /   0  10   0   0
Fabens                   68  96  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             68  94  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           69  94  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            66  93  66  93 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    65  96  66  96 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus                 68  96  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                64  92  66  92 /   0  10   0   0
Mayhill                  55  82  55  82 /   0  20   0  10
Mescalero                55  83  55  82 /   0  10  10  10
Timberon                 53  80  54  80 /   0  10   0   0
Winston                  55  85  55  84 /  10  10  10   0
Hillsboro                63  93  63  92 /  10  10  10   0
Spaceport                63  93  65  92 /  10  10  10   0
Lake Roberts             55  87  57  87 /   0  10  10  10
Hurley                   61  90  62  89 /   0  10  10  10
Cliff                    63  93  65  93 /   0  10  10  10
Mule Creek               60  88  61  88 /   0  10  10  10
Faywood                  63  89  64  89 /   0  10  10  10
Animas                   66  93  66  92 /   0  10  10  10
Hachita                  65  92  66  92 /   0  10  10  10
Antelope Wells           65  92  65  92 /  10  10  10  10
Cloverdale               63  88  64  87 /  10  10  10  10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...15-Brice

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion