Surprise, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

326
FXUS63 KOAX 041058
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
558 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Windy and dry conditions will lead to elevated fire danger
  across the region today, mainly confined to agricultural
  fields where harvesting is ongoing.
- Chances for showers and storms return to the area Sunday
  afternoon and continue into Tuesday morning. Additional
  chances exist Wednesday night into Thursday.
- Temperatures trend cooler early next week, with highs in the
  60s Monday-Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Satellite shows an area of passing high clouds across southeast
Nebraska this morning. Winds are out of the south with some
areas seeing occasional gusts to 20-25 mph. This is a surface
reflection of the 40-45 kt low-level jet which has developed
over central and eastern Nebraska this morning. This jet will
remain in place through today and tonight as an approaching
upper-level trough reinforces the pressure gradient across our
region. After sunrise today we`ll start to see the stable
boundary layer inversion mix out bringing these stronger winds
toward the surface with gusts this afternoon getting up to 30-40
mph. Strong winds combined with warm temperatures peaking around
90 degrees this afternoon and dry conditions will lead to
elevated fire danger this afternoon, with particular concern for
crops and drier grassy areas. Fine fuels are still somewhat
green, so holding off on a Red Flag Warning with this event but
have issued a Special Weather Statement to message the fire
potential.
This evening the upper-level trough arrives bringing the low-
level jet up to its peak strength with strongest winds possible
between 7-10 PM. May potentially need a wind advisory for this
timeframe but uncertainty that we`ll be able to mix these
stronger winds down to the surface after sunset leads me to hold
off on an advisory at this time. Strongest winds will be over
northeast Nebraska.
As the upper-level trough moves through we see low potential for
a few isolated showers/storms in northeast Nebraska. For the
most part, the better chances for showers/storms will hold off
until the surface cold front arrives Sunday. Speaking of the
cold front, this will push into northeast Nebraska Sunday
morning bringing in milder temperatures. Model guidance stalls
this front somewhere across southeast Nebraska providing a focus
for shower and storm activity along this corridor Sunday
afternoon into Monday. With showers and storms across southeast
Nebraska and cooler air north of the boundary, temperatures will
feel fairly cool on Monday with highs across most of our area
only reaching the upper 50s to low 60s across our area. The only
exception is far southeast Nebraska which may remain south of
the boundary allowing temperatures to warm to near 70.
Now let`s talk about the rainfall amounts Sunday night through
Monday. Due to the stationary boundary and storms developing and
training along this same corridor for a good day to day and a
half, ensemble guidance is catching on to the potential for
higher amounts of rainfall across southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa. The NBM is forecasting 1.5 to 2.5 inches now
along this boundary. While this is a good amount of rain, not
expecting significant impacts unless we get locally higher
amounts of 3+ inches much of this area is rural, dry, and can
absorb 1-3 inches of rainfall without much trouble.
The front moves off to the southeast by Tuesday leaving behind
the cooler, dry air mass in place. Despite mostly sunny skies,
high will still only reach into the mid 60s Tuesday afternoon.
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will be the coolest morning
of this stretch with lows dropping into the low-to-mid 40s
across the region. As we continue into the day on Wednesday we
see winds reverse direction to southerly as the Canadian High
shifts off to the east and an upper-level shortwave starts to
develop a lee-side area of low pressure over the Western
Plains.
This area of low pressure mentioned above will bring our next
chance for showers/storms on Thursday. Right now PoPs are in the
20-30% range but that`s likely due to uncertainties in timing
and location in this very unstable pattern. Details will start
to be ironed out as we get closer to this system next week.
All in all, after a hot few days, a big cool-down is on the way
for early next week with highs in the 60s through Wednesday.
Temperatures will warm back up into the 70s late in the week,
but I think we may be done with 90 degree weather for the year,
and potentially with long stretches of temperatures in the 80s
as well. Fall may finally have arrived.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 558 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
VFR conditions hold through the TAF period. Southerly winds this
morning with a strong low-level jet leading to LLWS with winds
ramping up to around 45-50 kt out of the southwest around FL019.
We`ll see the stronger winds aloft start to weaken as winds mix
to the surface around 15Z bringing an end to LLWS, though
surface winds will be gusting out of the south to 30-35 kt
through this afternoon. This evening surface winds will back
down a bit down to 17g28kt while winds ramp back up aloft
(FL019) to around 50 kt out of the southwest leading to LLWS.
LLWS will persist through the end of the TAF period.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion