Telferner, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

190
FXUS64 KCRP 060534
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1234 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1233 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
- Increased rainfall chances return this weekend into next week
- Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of Flash Flooding Sunday and Sunday
  night
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Near normal temperatures will return this weekend into next week as
cloud cover and rain chances increase. Very little changes from
previous forecast packages. Increase moisture from the remnants of
Lorena will continue to filter into the region ahead of an
approaching boundary. What we do know is that rain chances will
increase and all of South Texas should get some rain. What we still
don`t know is just how much rain will fall and what areas will get
the most. The forecast for rainfall amounts and location should come
into better focus within the next 24 hours as Sunday and Sunday
night (the expected most active periods) begin to enter the temporal
resolution of the convective allowing models. The boundary is
expected to be draped across the Hill Country Saturday morning and
slowly move south before stalling somewhere across South or Deep
South Texas. Where that front stalls will be key to what areas will
see the most rain. A front stalling just north of South Texas will
promote wetter conditions this weekend into early next week trapping
moisture ahead of it while a stalling front further south over Deep
South Texas would allow some drier air to filter in and provide a
relief from the rain early next week. Therefore, kept high rain
chances through Monday. Due to the the possibility of periods of
heavy rain, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted Sunday and
Sunday night under a Marginal Risk of Flash Flooding (level 1 of 4)
with a 5-14% chance of isolated flash flooding. Regardless of which
solution plays out, a mid to upper level ridge is expected to
develop mid-week and strengthen through the end of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Overnight, much of the area remains in VFR conditions, transitioning
to MFVR conditions closer to sunrise as a scattered broken low cloud
pushes onshore. After 12Z, hi-res models hint at morning showers and
thunderstorms primarily coastal and eastern terminals. PROB30 groups
accounting for reduced VIS and CIG go through the late morning/early
afternoon. Additional PROB30 groups for the afternoon convection
have similar aviation reductions in flight categories. Uncertainty
arises for Saturday night given some disagreement of the cessation
of these showers/thunderstorms. Put in PROB30s to account for this.
All these PROB30s will be reconsidered for TEMPOs with the overnight
hi-res model runs.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
A gentle to moderate breeze (BF 3-4) is expected this weekend
through next week with a medium chance for a fresh breeze (BF 5) to
develop Monday across the northern marine zones. Medium to high rain
chances will enter the coastal water forecast today and persist
through Monday, before dropping to low chances (less then 40%)
Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    93  77  91  76 /  50  50  80  60
Victoria          95  73  91  71 /  50  40  70  40
Laredo           102  77  96  76 /  30  40  80  60
Alice             98  75  93  73 /  40  50  80  60
Rockport          93  77  91  76 /  60  60  80  70
Cotulla           98  76  93  74 /  30  50  80  40
Kingsville        95  75  92  74 /  40  50  80  60
Navy Corpus       90  81  88  80 /  60  60  80  80
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JCP/84
AVIATION...AE/82

NWS CRP Office Area Forecast Discussion