Telma, Washington Weather Forecast Discussion

421
FXUS66 KOTX 061138
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
438 AM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry through Thursday.
- Cold overnight temperature in sheltered valleys through
  Wednesday.
- Unsettled weather over the weekend including the potential of
  light mountain pass snow and breezy winds.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Drier conditions expected over the weekend into early next week
with chilly overnight lows and areas of frost. Temperatures will
increase slightly through the week. Next weekend brings chances
of unsettled weather and precipitation.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Friday: Temperatures will be mild in the 60s and 70s
early to mid-week thanks to shortwave ridging developing and a
shortwave trough over the Gulf of Alaska diving south and
retrograding off the coast. Clear skies and dry conditions will lead
to frost development this morning in the Columbia Basin, Palouse,
and northeast valleys. Cold prone locations such as Deer Park and
Colville will reach into the low to mid 20s this morning. Chilly
overnight lows in the upper 20s to low 30s will continue in the
northeast valleys as the airmass is not expected to drastically
change.
While mild high temperatures in the 70s are forecasted continue
Thursday, clouds will increase as the low is forecasted to be only a
couple hundred miles offshore the WA/OR coast. Shower chances
increase region wide Friday and into the weekend, bringing much need
beneficial rains. Across all the mountains, there is a 50-90% chance
of 0.25" of rain from Friday to Sunday. Those chances decrease to 40-
70% for the Spokane area, southeast WA, and the L-C valley. As in
most cases, the Columbia Basin has the smallest chance to see 0.25"+
of rain (10-30% chance). The operational GFS and ECWMF show a
secondary low dropping into southern British Columbia Saturday
bringing a reinforcing shot of polar air (which has 60% support from
the ensembles) into the region, which would bring chances for
mountain pass snow in the Cascades and the Idaho Panhandle. This
period will also need to be monitored for potentially strong
winds as well associated with strong pressure gradients and cold
front passages. From 5 PM Saturday to 5 PM Sunday, the
probability for 2+" of snow at some of the mountain passes are
listed below:
Stevens Pass: 50%
Washington Pass: 45%
Lookout Pass: 25%
Sherman Pass: 5%
Cool and unsettled conditions will continue into early next week
with potential for snow levels to reach near the valley floors in
the northern mountain valleys. /Butler
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Active fire activity in the Cascades near KEAT will
result in smoke at the airport and MVFR conditions. Smoke is
expected to slowly dissipate with VFR conditions by the
afternoon. Otherwise, mostly sunny across the Inland Northwest
with just a few passing high clouds near the Canadian border
today.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions across the region except near
KEAT where active fire active with result in smoke filled
valleys and MVFR conditions. Low confidence on when smoke will
lift as a strong inversion will be in place this morning. /SVH
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        66  39  72  42  71  44 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  65  40  70  42  72  45 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Pullman        63  38  71  41  72  44 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Lewiston       68  43  75  46  76  49 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Colville       66  29  68  30  68  34 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Sandpoint      62  35  66  38  68  40 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Kellogg        63  42  70  47  71  48 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Moses Lake     69  37  71  37  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      69  46  71  46  68  49 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Omak           70  42  71  42  70  45 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Moses Lake Area-
     Upper Columbia Basin.
ID...None.
&&
$$

NWS OTX Office Area Forecast Discussion