Temvik, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

045
FXUS63 KBIS 031730
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1230 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Well above normal temperatures continue today, with highs
  mostly in the 80s.
- Windy with high chances for rain, heavy at times, across
  southwest and central North Dakota Saturday night into Sunday,
  with medium chances for rain northwest.
- A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible
  across south central into eastern North Dakota late Saturday
  afternoon through Saturday night.
- Much cooler for the first half of next week, with highs mostly
  in the 50s and lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s.
- Medium chances for a hard freeze across much of western and
  north central North Dakota Sunday night and Monday night.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Conditions remain quiet at the time of this mid day update. Weak
reflectivities continue to move across north central North
Dakota at this time, but there is no evidence of any rain
reaching the ground. Overall, the forecast remains on track.
UPDATE
Issued at 948 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Weak reflectivities continue to trawl along our northern
counties at the time of this late morning update. That begin
said, with high cloud bases around 15000 ft, and with a
significantly dry near surface layer evident in BUFKIT model
soundings, little to no precipitation is expected to reach the
ground at this time. Have made some slight adjustments to the
cloud cover to account for the latest satellite and model
trends, but otherwise the forecast remains on track.
UPDATE
Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Light showers/sprinkles in the far north have lifted north of
the International Border. No updated needed at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Currently, low pressure was situated over southeast Montana
into north central Wyoming. A weak stationary front extended
from the surface low, northeast into north central ND, then east
into the northern Great Lakes Region. Aloft an upper level low
was moving onto the northern California coast. Upper level
ridging was ion place over the central portion of the U.S. The
upper level low will be the main forecast concern over the next
few days. Initially due to warm temperatures today, ahead of the
system, convection on Saturday with strong forcing approaching
as the upper low lifts through the Rockies and into the northern
Plains. Then rain, and strong winds as the system lifts through
the local area late Saturday night through Sunday. Finally cold
temperatures and the potential for freezing temperatures behind
the system Sunday night and Monday night.
Today, we are expecting unseasonably warm temperatures across
most of the forecast area, with forecast highs possibly 20-25
degrees above normal over most of the forecast area. The
exception will be the far north which will remain along/north of
the aforementioned stationary front. Southerly surface flow is
expected south of the stationary front bringing warm air into
the forecast area. Winds along the International border will be
more easterly, limiting the heating today. This afternoon, the
surface low over the northern High Plains pushes into southwest
North Dakota. With very warm temperatures in place, we could
see a period of near critical fire weather conditions over far
southwest North Dakota late this afternoon. Forecast winds here
are not that strong, in the 10 to 15 mph range, but afternoon
humidities are expected to drop to 15 to 20 percent in the far
southwest. We could also see a wind shift from southerly to
westerly as the surface low pushes through the far southwest
late this afternoon. Bufkit soundings do show the potential for
winds to mix out over the far southwest this afternoon, which
could bring some higher winds down to the surface. Fuels,
especially over western portions of Bowman and Slope counties
have cured more than areas to the east. Thus we may see a few
hours of near critical fire weather conditions over the far
southwest. In addition, SPC has highlighted the far southwest
ND, but moreso northwest SD for an elevated fire risk this
afternoon. Will mention near critical fire weather conditions
for Bowman and Slope counties this afternoon. Winds will be
stronger farther to the east, especially as you move into
central ND, but elevated humidity due to higher dewpoints are
expected to keep fire concerns low.
This afternoon and tonight, we see a surge of strong warm
advection lift southwest to northeast through the forecast
area. As the warm advection reaches the stationary front draped
across the north, there could be some isolated shower activity,
possibly a thunderstorm (SPC has has a general thunderstorm risk
here) but the risk for thunder appears to be pretty low. We will
see some strong winds continuing over the far south central and
the James River Valley this evening, stronger than this
afternoon probably, but the thinking now is this will be a short
duration, and winds should remain below advisory criteria. Will
monitor as RAP definitely shows a few hours of some stronger
winds this evening over eastern portions of central ND. The
surface low does push through most of the forecast area this
evening, then stalls over the south central into eastern ND
area late tonight and drifts slowly east on Saturday.
On Saturday, the main energy with the upper level low,
approaches the area through the day. By mid afternoon Saturday,
the frontal boundary is over the southern James River Valley.
This area would seem to be the favored area for surface based
convection, but it remains well capped. Farther west, from south
central ND into the Devils Lake Basin, the surface cold front
has moved through this area, but this area also looks to be
where the strongest forcing for ascent will be located as the
mid-upper level system lifts through the state. Forecast
soundings are not favorable for severe weather, but due to the
strength of the system and the strong bulk shear that will be
situated over the area, an isolated strong to marginally severe
storm can not be ruled out. SPC continues to advertise a
marginal risk for severe storms from Sioux County northeast to
Wells County, and points east. This area will also be favored
for periods of moderate to heavy rain. You can follow the track
of the 70H low from far southwest/south central ND Saturday
night, into the Devils lake Basin by early Sunday morning. Much
of this precipitation looks to be associated with the strong FG
forcing and the deformation zone lifting from southwest to
northeast ND. The big question is going to be Saturday evening.
If we are able to see some convection Saturday evening, we could
see areas with some high rainfall rates, followed by more
general moderate to heavy rain, which could lead to some
localized urban street flooding. If we don`t see convection
Saturday evening, the threat for localized street flooding will
be minimal.
Overall, there was little change in the precipitation potential.
The NBM 24 hour probability of an inch or more of precipitation
ending Sunday afternoon ranges from 40 to 70 percent in around a
100 mile wide swath from far southwest and south central ND,
northeast into the Devils Lake Basin. Currently, the axis of
highest probabilities extend from western Sioux County, through
Bismarck and Harvey, to Devils Lake. Probabilities drop quickly
to the northwest and southeast of this 100 mile wide swath.
NAEFS PWATs are at or above the 99th percentile over southwest
and south central through northeast ND within the 00Z-06Z
timeframe, indicating the potential for heavy rainfall,
especially if we see some evening convection.
Once the mid-upper level system lifts through, which appears to
be by around midday Sunday, we should dry out pretty quickly. It
will be a windy and raw day, especially after the very warm
temperatures we`ve been used to lately. The strongest pressure
rises and cold advection with this system on Sunday, looks to be
south and east of the forecast area, so wind highlights are not
anticipated. This may change, but at this time, the strongest
winds look to be in the southwest, but the timing takes these
winds through the area early Sunday morning, with a weakening
pressure gradient Sunday afternoon.
Sunday night, high pressure builds over the state with a surface
high situated over southwest ND by Monday morning. Currently
forecast lows look to at/below freezing over a good portion of
western and north central ND. Freeze headlines may be needed.
Will hold off for now as there will be uncertainties in how
quickly and completely clouds clear out. Monday night may bring
another potential for freezing temperatures in about the same
area. Things quiet down through mid week with high temperatures
remaining mainly in the 50s Monday and Tuesday and then warming
into the 60s and maybe lower 70s by mid to late week. We could
see a passing shower through the week but by and large we should
remain mostly dry.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Mainly VFR ceilings and visibility is anticipated at all
terminals throughout the 18Z TAF period. Later this evening,
wind shear is anticipated over south central North Dakota as a
LLJ sets up. Have added WS briefly at KBIS, and through much of
the evening through early tonight at KJMS. The chances for rain
increases across western North Dakota late Saturday morning.
Have added PROB30 groups for -RA at KXWA and KDIK with this
update. Rain is expected to become more widespread across the
forecast area beyond the end of the TAF period, late Saturday
through much of Sunday. Winds tonight are expected to remain
somewhat elevated and out of the south in James River Valley,
while generally diminishing and turning cyclonically elsewhere.
Winds will then strengthen from 10 to 15 knots and organize out
of the north through Saturday morning.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Adam/TWH
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion