Texico, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

958
FXUS65 KABQ 101338 AAB
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
738 AM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 735 AM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
- Storm chances increase in coverage Wednesday through Friday,
  with the highest rainfall expected in the northwest. Strong to
  severe storms may produce gusty outflow winds and large hail.
  There will be a low risk of flash flooding in western and
  northern areas as well.
- Drier weather across western and central New Mexico Saturday
  with scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage along and east
  of the central mountain chain. Storm chances will likely trend
  up again early next week (moderate confidence).
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 735 AM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Added in low rain chances for this morning and early afternoon
around central and northern NM given recent radar trends. In
addition, storms will likely begin to develop late morning
(10-11am) as opposed to later in the afternoon as most models
suggest.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 100 AM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Showers and storms are slowly tapering off early this morning across
parts of the central highlands and east central plains. After this
dissipates, it should be a quiet night with some lingering mid level
clouds across central NM. Shower and thunderstorm coverage is
expected to be higher across northwest and north central NM and near
the AZ border on Wednesday due to a weak shortwave embedded in the
increasing moist and upslope south-southwest flow ahead of the 570
dam 500 mb upper low over northern CA and the Nevada Great Basin.
PWATS will be around 0.7 to 0.95 inches across this part of the
state which is around the 90th percentile for early to mid
September. A few storms could become strong across northwest NM due
to the increasing upper level flow ahead of the low.Some isolated
showers and storms also across the central mountain chain and
adjacent eastern highlands and plains due to being on the edge of
the upper high circulation over West Texas and upslope south-
southeast surface flow. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are
now expected on the HPCC and Ruidoso area burn scars. Max ensemble
guidance from the HREF keeps the heavier rainfall amounts of locally
up to 0.75 inches east of the burn scars and storm motion will be
brisk to the northeast at around 10 to 20 mph. However, a storm like
the one that impacted Albuquerque last evening cannot be ruled
out, so a minor risk for burn scar flash flooding is still in play.
Showers and storms will slowly taper off after sunset outside of
northwest NM and far north central NM where storms could linger to
as late as early Thursday morning due to the moist upslope south and
southwest flow along the San Juan and Tusas Mountains.
Thursday looks pretty similar to Wednesday with one noticable
difference. Hi res deterministic and ensemble guidance shows some
isolated to scattered storms once again along the AZ/NM border and
northwest and far north central NM, but has little to no storm
coverage across the central mountain chain, with maybe a few stray
showers/storms across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. This might
be due to the fact of no noticable shortwave between the upper
low and upper high circulations. Max ensemble guidance from the HREF
has up to 0.5 inches across far northwest and north central NM near
the CO border.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 AM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Come Friday, the upper low stretches from the Great Basin to the
northern Rockies with 2 centroids, one over northern NV and another
one in northern MT. Drier westerly air will move into southern CA
and the western half of AZ at the base of the upper low circulation.
This will set up a defined moisture boundary across eastern AZ with
PWATS below 0.50 inches west of the boundary and around 0.8 to 1
inch along and east of the boundary across western and central NM.
This moisture boundary will result in the highest storm coverage of
the week for western and central NM with areas along and north of I-
40 being the most favored. The latest NAM guidance shows a well
structured line of storms across western NM Friday afternoon moving
into central NM, including the ABQ and Santa Fe Metro Friday evening.
This line of storms will have the potential to become strong to
severe with effective bulk shear values of 40 to 55 kts. Localized
areas of flash flooding cannot be ruled out with this line of
storms. This line of storms looks to move across the central
mountain chain and adjacent highlands of central NM Friday night.
Storm motion will be quick to the east-northeast at 15 to 30 mph but
intense rainfall rates of locally greater than 2 inches an hour
could result in flash flooding on burn scars, especially the HPCC
burn scar. These heavier rainfall rates Friday night look to remain
north of Ruidoso at this time.
The upper low consolidates over the northern Rockies on Saturday
with it`s northeast progress slowed due to a blocking upper
high over central Canada and the central U.S. The position of the
upper low will help push the much drier air east into western
and central NM Saturday. Higher moisture with PWATs around 0.8 to 1
inch lingers along and east of the central mountain chain result in
a scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms across this part
of the state. A few of these storms could become strong to severe
due to high directional and speed shear resulting in effective bulk
shear values of 40 to 50 kts. Sunday is now looking dry for most
with drier westerly flow in the wake of this first upper low moving
east into much of the state. The one exception based on ensemble
cluster guidance could be southeast NM with higher moisture
potentially lingering on across this part of the state. This is due
to a 2nd upper low moving into the Pacific Coast. This upper low
moves into the Pacific NW and Great Basin early next week bring
shower and thunderstorm chances back to the state. Central and
western NM will be the most favored.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 510 AM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
A few lingering showers will continue through mid morning on the
caprock, including KCVN and KCVS. Shower and thunderstorm
coverage tomorrow afternoon and evening will favor far western NM,
north central NM, and the central mountain chain and adjacent
lower elevations. Included PROB30s at KFMN, KGUP, KAEG, KSAF,
KLVS, and KTCC to account for gusty winds from this activity.
Shower and thunderstorm activity slowly tapers off after sunset
with storms lingering longest and persisting across northwest and
far north central NM, including KFMN. BKN to OVC mid level clouds
lingering overnight across western, central and northern NM.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 100 AM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
No critical fire weather conditions expected through the forecast
period. Breezy south-southeast winds with better shower and storm
coverage across far western and north central New Mexico and the
central mountain chain and adjacent lower elevations Wednesday and
far western and northwest NM Thursday. Shower and thunderstorm
coverage peaks on Friday across western and central NM with a risk
for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Drier and breezy
westerly flow looks to move into western and central New Mexico on
Saturday with scattered showers and thunderstorms along and east of
the central mountain chain. Mostly dry areawide on Sunday outside of
potentially some isolated to scattered showers and storms across
southeast NM. Min RH values of 15 to 20 percent along and west of
the central mountain chain on Sunday. Shower and thunderstorm
coverage increases early next week with central and western NM
being the most favored areas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  87  60  84  59 /  50  60  50  60
Dulce...........................  82  49  77  48 /  50  60  50  60
Cuba............................  83  55  81  53 /  40  50  40  50
Gallup..........................  85  52  82  52 /  40  30  30  30
El Morro........................  81  54  79  53 /  40  30  50  50
Grants..........................  85  54  82  54 /  40  30  50  40
Quemado.........................  84  53  81  54 /  30  20  30  30
Magdalena.......................  84  59  82  59 /  20  20  20  20
Datil...........................  81  53  79  53 /  20  20  30  20
Reserve.........................  88  53  86  53 /  20  20  20  20
Glenwood........................  92  58  90  58 /  20  30  30  20
Chama...........................  75  48  73  47 /  40  50  50  50
Los Alamos......................  81  58  79  57 /  30  30  30  30
Pecos...........................  82  53  81  52 /  20  20  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  80  52  78  51 /  20  20  20  20
Red River.......................  73  42  71  41 /  20  20  20  20
Angel Fire......................  76  39  74  38 /  20  20  20  20
Taos............................  82  52  81  51 /  20  20  20  20
Mora............................  79  49  77  48 /  30  20  20  20
Espanola........................  88  57  86  56 /  20  20  20  20
Santa Fe........................  83  58  82  57 /  20  20  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  87  57  86  56 /  20  20  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  89  65  88  64 /  20  20  20  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  90  66  89  65 /  20  20  20  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  91  59  91  59 /  20  20  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  91  64  90  64 /  20  20  20  20
Belen...........................  93  61  91  61 /  20  20  10  20
Bernalillo......................  91  62  90  62 /  20  20  20  20
Bosque Farms....................  91  59  90  59 /  20  20  10  20
Corrales........................  91  62  91  62 /  20  20  20  20
Los Lunas.......................  91  60  90  60 /  20  20  10  20
Placitas........................  87  62  87  60 /  20  20  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  89  64  89  63 /  20  20  20  20
Socorro.........................  94  64  92  64 /  10  10  10  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  83  58  82  57 /  20  20  20  20
Tijeras.........................  85  60  84  58 /  20  20  20  20
Edgewood........................  84  55  84  54 /  20  20  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  86  52  85  51 /  20  20  10  20
Clines Corners..................  81  55  81  53 /  20  20  10  10
Mountainair.....................  85  57  84  55 /  20  20  10  10
Gran Quivira....................  85  57  83  54 /  20  10  10  10
Carrizozo.......................  87  61  86  59 /  20  10  10   5
Ruidoso.........................  79  52  79  51 /  30  20  10   5
Capulin.........................  82  54  81  52 /  20  20  10   5
Raton...........................  84  51  83  52 /  20  20  10  10
Springer........................  88  53  87  53 /  20  20  10  10
Las Vegas.......................  82  53  81  51 /  20  30  10  10
Clayton.........................  89  62  89  60 /  20  30   0   0
Roy.............................  87  57  85  57 /  20  30   5   0
Conchas.........................  93  62  91  61 /  20  30   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  89  59  88  60 /  20  30   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  91  60  90  59 /  20  20   0   0
Clovis..........................  93  61  91  60 /  20   0   0   0
Portales........................  93  60  91  60 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  92  60  91  61 /  20  10   0   0
Roswell.........................  95  62  93  62 /  10   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  90  57  88  57 /  20  10   0   0
Elk.............................  85  55  83  54 /  20  10   0   0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion