Thomasville, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

346
FXUS62 KTAE 080511
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
111 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 923 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist for a few more
hours across the Florida big bend before diminishing after midnight.
Storms offshore are capable of wind gusts in excess of 34 knots and
are a hazard to boaters, where Special Marine Warnings remain in
effect through at least midnight EDT.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
A cold front bisecting our area this afternoon moseys through and
stalls in the northeastern Gulf later tonight into Monday.
Meanwhile, the surface high trudges through the Great Lakes region
into the Northeast, causing our winds to turn more northeasterly
during the day Monday. Interestingly, a quick look at the surface
obs across the Carolinas and eastern Georgia show dew points in the
upper 60s to lower 70s as opposed to the upper 40s to middle 50s
like our neighbors to the northwest are enjoying. Since our winds
are more northeasterly Monday afternoon, those higher dew points get
pushed over us. In other words, a quick reprieve from the higher
dews are expected tonight, especially west of the Flint/Apalachicola
River basins, before quickly returning Monday. Add in the proximity
of the stalled front and rain/storm chances will remain in the
forecast again Monday, primarily across Florida where they`ll be
closer to the front.
Temperatures are also a bit interesting, specially for portions of
southwestern Georgia. The aforementioned northeasterly breeze
pushing down the higher dew points loves to bring a stubborn stratus
deck along with it. Some guidance, notably the NAM (which does okay
in these regimes), is much cooler than others by 8 to 10 degrees for
areas near Albany and Tifton. Haven`t gone quite that cool, but did
nudge temperatures down a bit for a good chunk of SW Georgia, or the
lower to middle 80s. Elsewhere, near normal temperatures are
expected with middle to upper 80s to near 90, which is still cooler
than we`ve dealt with the past few days.
&&
.SHORT TERM and LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
The only hazardous weather through next weekend will be a few
bouts of Small Craft Advisory conditions over the Gulf waters.
Low-level northeast flow will be persistent throughout the week
ahead and next weekend. The main sensible variations will be
increased rain chances and less hot conditions on Tuesday,
followed by a drying air mass and a greater diurnal variation in
temperatures (fancy way of saying hotter days and cooler nights)
from Wednesday on.
A broad and somewhat weak 500 mb trough axis... at times somewhat
split off from the mid-latitude jet stream... will take all week
and next weekend to move from the Lower Mississippi River to near
the Carolina, Georgia, and NE Florida coastline. Downstream of
this feature, an inverted surface trough or elongated surface low
will persist over the Atlantic waters east of the Southeast U.S.
coast, with a slow-moving cold front trailing off to the southwest
across the FL Peninsula.
Early in the week on Monday night and Tuesday, a weak shortwave
will eject out of the 500 mb trough axis, temporarily
strengthening the surface trough just offshore in the Atlantic.
NAM time-height section over TLH shows that 925-700 mb flow will
veer from NE to ESE from Monday night through Tuesday evening,
causing a temporary surge of moisture to spread in from the FL
Peninsula, where a very moist air mass is currently parked. This
will support an increase in shallow convection for more of our
Florida and far south Georgia counties, with deeper convection
possible over the SE Big Bend.
NE flow will deepen on Wednesday through the 925-700 mb layer, so
drier air will start to edge in from the north. By Thursday as the
500 mb trough axis makes slow eastward headway, the cold front
over the northern FL Peninsula will make headway south down the
peninsula. This will put us deeper and deeper into a drier air
mass from Thursday through next weekend. Surface dewpoints over
the course of Thursday and Friday will fall through the 60s,
reaching the 50s north of the Florida state line. The drier air
mass along with the return of clearer skies will allow more
cooling of nighttime temperatures, with sunshine boosting
afternoon highs back to seasonably warm or hot values.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
A few spots of stubborn ceilings and/or fog will be possible
around sunrise this morning with the best chances across the
eastern portions of the area. Scattered showers and storms will
again be possible this afternoon generally near and southeast of a
KECP to KVLD line. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are
expected.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Northeast winds of varying strength will persist throughout the
week ahead, thanks to high pressure anchored to the north and
persistent low pressure east of the Georgia and Carolina coast.
Nighttime and morning surges of wind will occur off the land, with
a relative lull each afternoon. Strong northeast breezes are
forecast in the nighttime surges through Tuesday night. Weaker
moderate to fresh breezes are forecast in the nighttime surges of
wind on Wednesday and Thursday nights. Seas will quickly
deteriorate for boaters who venture into more distant waters.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Winds turn more northeasterly early in the week as a cold front
stalls in the northeastern Gulf; some gusty winds are possible,
especially for our Georgia and Alabama districts, as the pressure
gradient tightens. Transport winds will be out of the northeast to
east around 10-15 mph much of the upcoming work week. The proximity
of the stalled front leads to the potential for isolated to
scattered showers and storms each afternoon across our Florida
districts with the best chances across the Southeastern Florida Big
Bend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
The southeast Big Bend region, mainly around Dixie County, could
experience short-lived nuisance flooding through Tuesday evening,
in response to thunderstorms with heavy rainfall rates.
Thunderstorms will diminish from Wednesday onward.
Otherwise, flooding is not expected for the next 7 days.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   88  70  84  70 /  40  30  40  20
Panama City   90  71  87  71 /  40  40  40  20
Dothan        83  68  85  67 /  20  10  10  10
Albany        84  68  84  66 /  10  10  10  10
Valdosta      85  69  82  68 /  30  20  30  20
Cross City    87  71  85  70 /  70  40  70  40
Apalachicola  87  72  84  73 /  60  60  60  40
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for GMZ751-752-
     770-772.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Reese
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Haner

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion