Thornton, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

510
FXUS63 KGID 092110
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
410 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Activity ongoing this afternoon over the higher elevations to
  our west is expected to evolve into a more organized complex,
  sliding SSE later this evening-overnight. At this point, the
  best chances for storms for our area are mainly along-west of
  a Kearney-Beloit line. A few strong storms are not out of the
  question, but better potential for severe storms looks to
  focus to our WSW.
- Wednesday looks similar to today in that it is a cloudier
  start with more sun later in the day...highs expected to reach
  the low 80s, with SE winds around 10 MPH. Not out the question
  that late Wednesday night could see some scattered storms
  develop in far SE portions of the area. Again, severe storms
  are currently not expected.
- Forecast is dry for Thu-Fri, with better potential for upper
  level disturbances and preciptiation chances returning Sat-
  Mon. Warmest overall day of the 7-day forecast is Friday, in
  the low 90s, falling back into the 80s Sat-Mon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Currently...
After a dreary start to the day for much of the forecast area,
it`s a much improved afternoon. The day started with
widespread low level stratus and at times dense fog in western
areas...and while the stratus for some was pretty stubborn to
diminish, the entire forecast area is sitting under mostly sunny
skies here at mid- afternoon. Looking aloft, upper air and
satellite data show the region under west-northwesterly
flow...set up between troughing running roughly along the MO/MS
River valleys and ridging extending through the Rockies. At the
surface, high pressure continues to extend through much of the
eastern CONUS, while overall weak low pressure remains over the
High Plains. This has kept the pattern across the forecast area
on the weaker side, winds have gradually turned more east-
southeasterly with time, but speeds are still light this
afternoon, under 10 MPH. The slowly diminishing cloud cover
didn`t do temperatures any favors, which have been slow to rise,
and currently sit in the mid-upper 70s, with a few more hours
to go to rise a few more degrees.
This evening through Wednesday night...
As a subtle disturbance moves through the Rockies, have been
seeing increasing clouds and shower/thunderstorm development
off to our west in the higher elevations, aided by peak-heating
and more upslope flow with the easterly component to the winds.
One question going into later this evening-overnight will be
with just how much of that activity is sustained and makes it
far enough east to impact our forecast area. 12Z run of models
had some notable differences, a few much more aggressive with
the coverage/eastward push into the forecast area. The 18Z
models have a bit better agreement, generally showing this
activity out west evolving in to a complex that takes a mainly
southeastward path through the overnight hours. Taking a track
tied to better convergence along the nose of the low-level jet,
models show the brunt of activity largely missing us...clipping
SWrn portions of the area. Instability is expected to wane with
time, and models show deeper layer shear remaining on the weaker
side...so while some storms being on the stronger side is not
out of the question, the better potential for severe storms
looks to remain focused to our WSW. Another concern, mainly for
areas north of the better precipitation chances, is another
round of fog/low stratus. Sfc dewpoints have gradually climbed a
few degrees today, with our automated sites in the low-mid
60s...and models are in good agreement keeping winds light and
at times variable overnight. Models showing the main chances
being across NNW portions of the area, but have at least a
patchy mention going for most of our south central NE counties.
As we get into the daytime hours on Wednesday...questions linger
on just how much activity there is lingering into at least the
morning hours. Because of differences between models, forecast
is pretty generous with the 20 percent chances during the first
half of the day. Have those chances into much of the area south
of I-80, but the better potential seem like it will focus
along/south of the NE/KS state line. Kept the afternoon and
evening hours dry, but there a small chance additional scattered
activity could develop late evening-overnight, driven along the
nose of a low-level jet. Currently have those chances in an
overall smaller portion of the SErn forecast area, but a few
models suggest that area could be expanded. Not out of the
question that the start of the day could start out similar to
today with plenty of cloud cover and some fog...and could again
affect how warm we get, or at least delay it. Didn`t make
significant changes to forecast highs, which are in the low 80s.
At the surface, low pressure deepening a bit off to our west
looks to bring more solidly SE winds, with speeds closer to 10-
15 MPH.
Thursday on into early next week...
For the latter half of the week and into early next week, models
showing the potential for a more amplified upper level pattern,
as low pressure digs further south through the western CONUS.
Between this and lingering troughing over the eastern CONUS, the
main ridge axis slides onto the Plains. Current forecast for
Thursday and Friday is dry...but that`s not a slam dunk...as
some models showing subtle waves riding around the edge of the
ridge having the potential to bring us at least scattered
precipitation chances. This weekend and into early next week,
models show flow turning more SSW across the region as the ridge
axis slides off to our east...allowing for better potential of
disturbances sliding through the region...and periodic
precipitation chances return to the forecast. Hard to have a ton
of confidence in the timing/location of these disturbances this
far out though.
As far as temperatures go, with the upper level ridging moving
into the region, forecast calls for warming temps Thu/Fri,
with highs in the low 90s currently going for Friday. With the
return of more precipitation chances and the ridge sliding east,
highs Sat-Tue drop back into the 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Gradually diminishing lower level stratus will continue that
trend to start off this period...and while sub-VFR conditions
are around to start, satellite imagery suggest that it won`t be
long before VFR conditions return. Kept VFR conditions going
through this evening into part of the overnight hours, before
models show the potential for fog/stratus returning to both
terminal areas. There are still some difference with just how
low conditions go...do have a few hours around sunrise with 1SM
and BKN010...with VFR conditions returning mid-morning. Kept
this period dry, most models keep the best precip potential WSW
of the terminal areas. A weak surface pattern looks to keep
winds on the light/variable side...with more SE winds toward the
end of the period.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion