Three Rivers, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

732
FXUS64 KLIX 221802
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
102 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
1 - Much-needed rain returns to the forecast ahead of a midweek
    cold front.
2 - In the wake of the cold front, a return to near normal
    temperatures can be expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Isolated to scattered convection will continue into the early
evening hours as an upper trough swings through the Middle
Mississippi Valley. The trough will pull away from the area
overnight, with a return to more zonal flow aloft for Tuesday.
There will still be decent moisture across western areas
(precipitable water values near 2 inches), and it should be
enough to fire off isolated to widely scattered showers and storms
as a result of diurnal heating. Will continue to carry 20-40%
POPs in these areas from late morning through late afternoon.
Across eastern areas, moisture will be a bit lower (PW closer to
1.5 inches), and while a few showers and storms can`t be ruled
out, probability will be more in the 10-15% range.
Regarding temperatures, expect warmer than normal conditions to
persist.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
By midweek an elongated upper trough is forecast to extend from a
low over the Great Lakes southwestward through Texas. As embedded
shortwave disturbances move through the elongated trough, we`ll
see more active weather Wednesday and Thursday.
The first disturbance will move through on Wednesday. This will be
well ahead of the surface cold front, but should still result in
decent rain chances across the area and at least some low-end
potential for a couple strong to severe storms. PW values are
forecast to be increasing through the day, and should be over 2
inches across much of the area by midday and into the afternoon.
This will provide plenty of moisture to work with. The added
instability and lift associated with the disturbance should be
enough to fire off scattered to numerous showers and storms area-
wide, with POPs generally in the 50-70% range.
This disturbance won`t be enough to push the front through the
area, though, as it starts to broaden and lift northeastward with
upper level winds becoming parallel to the frontal boundary by
Wednesday evening. However, a second disturbance right on its
heels should be enough to push the front through on Thursday. With
PW values of around 2.25" across the area and the added focus of
the frontal boundary, expect another day of active weather with
most places seeing at least some rain during the day. Will
generally carry 60-80% POPs area wide Thursday.
This will be a welcome wetting rain for many areas that have seen
little to no rain this month so far. In fact, last Thursday`s
drought monitor indicated the bulk of the area to be "abnormally
dry" with a small area of "D1 - moderate drought" around the I-55
corridor. The current forecast generally calls for 0.5-1" of rain
for most areas over the two-day period. Looking at model ensemble
guidance, there is potential for some areas to see greater than
2.5" of rain.
In the wake of the front drier air moves in and we should see a
couple days of near normal temperatures with lows in the 60s and
lower 70s and highs in the mid to upper 80s to carry us into the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with winds
generally less than 20 kts. Scattered showers and storms could
result in temporary cig and vsby restrictions mainly across
western areas, and PROB30 groups have been included at BTR, HDC,
and HUM. Elsewhere, probability remains too low to mention at this
time and short term amendments will need to be issued for any
storms that do pop up around the other terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Surface high pressure will remain generally east to northeast of
the coastal waters through the first half of the week, resulting
in benign conditions. An approaching cold front will result in
higher rain chances Wednesday and Thursday, with winds and seas
becoming more chaotic in the vicinity of storms. As the front
moves into the Gulf Thursday night into Friday, high pressure will
build in from the northwest resulting in a period of offshore
winds through the weekend. Outside of thunderstorms, no marine
hazards expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  91  71  89 /  10  20  10  60
BTR  71  92  73  91 /  10  30  10  70
ASD  69  90  71  90 /   0  10   0  50
MSY  75  93  76  92 /   0  20  10  50
GPT  73  88  73  89 /   0  10   0  30
PQL  69  90  70  90 /   0   0   0  30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion