Togus, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

514
FXUS61 KGYX 241025
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
625 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A front will push southwestward into southern New England today
as high pressure briefly builds in from the north. Low pressure
in the Ohio Valley will lift the front northward Wednesday night
into Thursday with widespread rainfall likely. As the low
tracks through the St Lawrence Valley Thursday night rain will
continue into Friday before the attendant cold front crosses.
High pressure then builds in for the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
625 AM Update...Light showers continue to cross southern New
Hampshire early this morning as a frontal boundary is stalled
just south of the border. Made minor adjustments to PoPs to
account for this, as well as loaded in the latest temperature observations
to align the near term forecast with those trends.
Previous Discussion...
Impacts and Key Messages:
* Long period swell from TC Gabrielle will pose a high rip
  current risk and bring marginally high surf to area beaches
  today.
An area of showers associated with a shortwave is moving through
far southern New Hampshire at the time of this writing.
Instability remains well to the south with thunderstorms being
observed in Connecticut, so these are light and will be pushing
off the coast early this morning. Shortwave ridging then builds
into the area today, which should help to limit true shower
activity, but moisture locked in over the region along with an
onshore flow, will make for a mess of low clouds and
drizzle/mist for much of the area. The exception will be in far
northern New Hampshire and Western Maine, The Kennebec Valley,
and Midcoast where noticeable clearing occurs this afternoon.
High temperatures are going to be limited by the messy morning,
only reaching the mid- to upper 60s for most of the area. Long
period swell from TC Gabrielle peaks today bringing marginally
high surf with current buoy observations around 4-5ft at 13
seconds. However, the more impactful result of this swell will
be the high rip current risk.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Impacts and Key Messages:
* No significant weather impacts are expected.
Tonight: Low pressure advances toward the region tonight
pushing a warm front near the area. This push of warm air
advection likely begins to blossom light showers out ahead of
the larger area of showers that will push in more toward
daybreak. The areas that see some clearing late this afternoon,
may have a good window of cooling early on in the night,
dropping into the upper 40s. Otherwise, low temperatures
generally end up in the low to mid-50s.
Thursday: Our best chance for a widespread soaking rainfall we
have seen in a while comes Thursday as low pressure rides along
a frontal boundary into the Northeast, with an upper trough
providing additional forcing. Jet dynamics also look favorable
for enhanced rainfall as the area ends up under the left exit
region of a 50kt upper level jet. An axis of moisture feeding
from The Gulf will accompany this system driving PWAT values up
above 1.75 inches for a large portion of the area, with some
suggestion of near 2 inch PWATs near the coast. Both long range
and hi-res ensembles, as well as the NBM, are painting modest
probabilities (around 50-60%) of greater than 1 inch of rainfall
for areas in the White Mountains and points south during the
daylight hours. Some convection is possible, but instability
looks limited by increased cloud cover. This may be better
assessed as we get closer to the event. Overall, expect a cool
day with highs in the 60s (low 70s near the coast) and much
welcomed widespread soaking showers.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
01Z NBM Update...No Major changes noted in latest NBM for the
long term period. Low pressure tracking north of the area
Thursday night will drag a cold front across the area Friday.
The 00Z suite of mesoscale models suggest steady rainfall will
end through the first half of Thursday night while a lagging
short wave may provide additional support for some showers
Friday. The airmass behind the front will be drier but not at
that cooler allowing for temperatures to run above normal
through the weekend.
Previously...
The widespread precipitation gradually winds down through the course
of Thursday night, but a chance of showers will continue through
Friday as another shortwave approaches. Depending on the timing of
this wave, there could be a couple of storms on Friday with forecast
soundings showing some instability and shear to work with.
For the weekend and early next week, there is a strong signal in the
ensembles for another period of mostly dry weather. High pressure
returns for Saturday before it`s displaced by a low pressure well to
the north that will send a cold front across the region late in the
day into Saturday night or early Sunday. A couple of showers are
possible with this front, but that`s about it as moisture looks like
it will be lacking.
High pressure then builds in from Canada early next week with some
cooler temperatures arriving around next Tuesday. Until then highs
will be mainly in the 70s for the weekend, possibly into Monday.
Overnight lows will be pretty seasonable in the 40s and 50s, and
then Monday night and Tuesday have potential for good radiational
cooling as the high starts to settle in.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...Not much improvement will be seen with ceilings
today as fog and low stratus only lift to MVFR heights. AUG and
RKD have the best chance of popping out to VFR for a time this
afternoon. Conditions than go back downhill tonight as rain
approaches from the southwest and locks in low ceilings
overnight. Widespread rain showers move in toward daybreak
Thursday and will persist through the day. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible and rain may be heavy at times.
Long Term...Low cigs and reduced visibility will likely bring
restrictions Thursday night as steady rain ends while drier air
will not arrive until during the day Friday. Mainly VFR Friday
with showers possible during the day, and possibly a storm.
Mainly VFR for Saturday as Sunday, although can`t completely
rule out a shower or two with a cold front Saturday night or
Sunday. Conditions will likely become favorable for valley fog
Friday and Saturday night.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Swell from TC Gabrielle peaks this morning with
seas building to 5ft. Swell will then ease through the afternoon
and evening, falling below 5ft tonight. Increasing low level
moisture brings areas of fog through the day today as well. Low
pressure moves through the region Thursday bringing showers and
a chance for isolated thunderstorms to the waters. Wind gusts
increase to around 20kts Thursday evening as a front approaches
the waters.
Long Term...South to southeast winds may continue to approach
SCA levels Thursday night as low pressure passes north of the
waters. This will also bring increasing chances for fog as well
as rainfall. Conditions improve Friday as winds become more
westerly with high pressure returning Saturday. Low pressure
passing well to the north sends a front across the waters
Saturday night or early Sunday, but SCA conditions are not
expected. High pressure then builds in from the north early next
week.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for MEZ023>027.
NH...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NHZ014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150-
     152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Baron
LONG TERM...Combs/Schroeter

NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion