Toledo, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

194
FXUS61 KCLE 071858
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
258 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A deep trough will remain across the Great Lakes tonight before
high pressure builds in by Monday. This high will drift offshore
of the New England coast by Tuesday night. A cold front will
drop through the region Wednesday night into Thursday followed
by high pressure returning to end the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Unseasonably cool air characterized by temperatures averaging
10-15 degrees below normal remains across the Great Lakes and
much of the eastern CONUS this afternoon due to a deep mid/upper
longwave trough anchored over central and eastern North America.
Widely scattered lake-effect showers are continuing within the
broad cyclonic NW flow this afternoon, but a large surface ridge
of Canadian high pressure over the Upper Midwest will gradually
bring an end to this activity as it builds into the southern
Great Lakes tonight and Monday morning.
There may be one more flare up of lake-effect showers tonight
into Monday morning as the boundary layer flow backs and also
weakens to 5-15 knots. Pattern recognition and numerous HREF
members suggest that this may lead to a convergent band near the
south shore tonight, persisting well through the morning Monday.
With this in mind, expanded chance and slight chance PoPs along
the central and eastern lakeshore from 00Z tonight through about
16Z Monday before the dry air and subsidence finally ends the
activity. This band may also produce land breeze convergent
waterspouts on the lake. Outside of the band, dry weather is
expected tonight through Monday.
Lows tonight and Monday night will drop into the low 40s inland
from the lake, with low 50s near the lakeshore, given fairly
strong radiational cooling. Highs Monday will range from the
upper 60s to low 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Mid-level height rises will take place Tuesday through Wednesday
as the deep mid/upper trough lifts out in response to the huge
west coast ridge breaking down and being replaced by a closed
low rotating into California and Oregon. At the same time, the
Canadian high at the surface will move across the eastern Great
Lakes Tuesday and offshore of the New England coast Tuesday
night. This will all support a pattern change to southerly flow
and resultant warm air advection, leading to spectacular weather
for mid week. Highs Tuesday will warm into the mid/upper 70s in
most areas, with upper 70s/low 80s Wednesday. Lows will also
rebound, with upper 40s/mid 50s Tuesday night and mainly low/mid
50s Wednesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to show another
mid/upper trough progressing across Ontario and Quebec Wednesday
night and Thursday. The main part of the trough will miss to the
NE of the region, but weak troughing and associated NW flow
pattern will still become reestablished across the eastern CONUS
for late week through next weekend leading to slightly cooler
weather, but still pleasantly warm. The associated cold front
will drop across the area by Thursday morning followed by
Canadian high pressure building across the Great Lakes Thursday
afternoon into Saturday. At this time, moisture looks very
limited with the front, so kept the dry NBM POPS Thursday, but
this will be watched. The high will then support the dry and
slightly cooler conditions into the weekend, but still a little
above average for mid September.
Highs in the mid 70s/low 80s Thursday will then range from the
mid to upper 70s Friday through Sunday, with perhaps still a few
low 80s in far western and southern areas.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Expansive high pressure builds across the region leading to
persistent dry weather across most terminals. Lingering
surface trough across Lake Erie will likely lead to another
brief window of lake effect rain showers to impact KERI (roughly
~06-12Z/Mon). Confidence in reductions below VFR remains low at
this time. Northwesterly winds this afternoon and evening at
8-10 knots will quickly become light and variable tonight as the
high builds overhead. Winds will favor a southerly component on
Monday while remaining at 5 knots or less.
Outlook...VFR expected through Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
An expansive area of high pressure will build across the Great
Lakes region before gliding east of Lake Erie on Tuesday. The
high will continue to influence the eastern Great Lakes as it
remains in the vicinity of the region through this week.
Northwesterly winds 10-15 knots this afternoon and evening will
diminish to 5-10 knots as the high builds overhead. Winds will
remain northerly on Monday before flow turns offshore Monday
night as the high builds eastward. A cold front moves south
across the lake Wednesday into Thursday with northeast flow
favored Thursday and Friday.
A weak surface trough will linger across Lake Erie through
early Monday morning. This will keep conditions favorable for
waterspouts in any lake effect rain shower that develops tonight
into early Monday morning.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...Garuckas
SHORT TERM...Garuckas
LONG TERM...Garuckas
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13

NWS CLE Office Area Forecast Discussion