Torch, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

950
FXUS61 KRLX 131757
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
157 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide dry and unseasonably warm conditions
through the weekend and into early next week. There is potential for
a breakdown of this pattern toward the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Saturday...
Surface high pressure remains in control of the weather across the
region this afternoon. This is yielding mostly clear skies and very
warm temperatures. Afternoon highs will climb into the mid to upper
80s for the lowlands, with the mountains warming into the upper 70s
to low 80s. A dry airmass is in place, with afternoon dew points
mixing out into the lower to mid 50s. This will allow relative
humidity values to drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s, especially
across the western lowlands. Fine unsheltered fuels continue to
cure out with lack of recent rainfall and will be more prone to
carrying fire. However, winds will remain light, generally
under 10 mph, which will limit the potential for rapid fire
spread.
A weak shortwave trough approaching from the northwest will bring an
increase in mid-level cloud cover this evening. While a stray
sprinkle cannot be entirely ruled out, the dry low-level airmass
suggests most of this will be virga, and the forecast remains dry.
Overnight, with light winds and clearing skies behind the departing
shortwave, conditions will be favorable for the development of
valley fog, which could be locally dense in areas subject to cold
air drainage away from major rivers. Lows will be in the upper 50s
to around 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Saturday ...
An upper level ridge will build over the region for the remainder of
the weekend into early next week. This will continue the stretch of
dry weather with mostly clear skies and unseasonably warm
temperatures. Highs on Sunday and Monday will be about 10
degrees above normal for mid-September, reaching the upper 80s,
with some locations in the Metro Valley possibly touching 90
degrees.
The elevated risk for wildfire starts will continue each afternoon,
as minimum humidity percentages drop into the upper 20s to lower
30s. Light winds should again limit the risk for fire spread.
Overnight lows will be mild, dropping into the upper 50s and
lower 60s, with areas of valley fog redeveloping each night. By
Tuesday, the ridge begins to flatten, marking the start of a
pattern change.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM Saturday...
The upper ridge that brings the warm and dry conditions early in the
week will begin to deamplify and shift eastward by midweek. At the
same time, troughing is forecast to develop along the southeast
coast. This will promote a more onshore flow, gradually
increasing moisture across the forecast area, especially along
the higher terrain. This may bring a return of precipitation
chances, initially confined to the higher terrain of the
mountains on Wednesday.
There is still some uncertainty in model guidance regarding the
evolution of this area of low pressure, which will impact how
much moisture ultimately makes it into the lower elevations and
resultant precipitation chances. For now will defer to drier
central guidance solution, but there is some hope in at least
some model families for some modest relief from the dry
conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 PM Saturday...
VFR conditions will prevail through this afternoon with light winds
and SKC. A weak shortwave will bring some mid-level clouds SCT-BKN
this evening, but ceilings should remain VFR. After the upper level
cloudiness clears tonight (generally after 08Z), valley fog is
expected to develop near EKN, CRW and PKB. The fog should lift and
dissipate by 13Z Sunday, returning all sites to VFR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, medium for fog.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: The coverage and density of valley fog
tonight may be limited by lingering mid-level clouds from a
passing disturbance.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in valley fog each morning through
at least early next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 145 PM Saturday...
Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will lead to an elevated risk
for fire ignition into early next week. Minimum relative
humidity values across the lowlands will generally be in the
upper 20s to lower 30s, but overnight recoveries should remain
good. Winds will remain light, generally below 10 mph, which
will limit the threat of fire spread.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
FIRE WEATHER...JP

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion