Tornillo, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

451
FXUS64 KEPZ 081710
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1110 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1110 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
- Temperatures will be 7 to 10 degrees above normal through the
  work week.
- Isolated storms possible northern areas each afternoon through
  Tuesday, dry elsewhere.
- Moisture returns Wednesday and beyond for chances of isolated
  thunderstorms focused west of the Divide initially then pushing
  east into the Rio Grande Valley by Friday into Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1110 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Upper ridge currently over the Rockies with just a little low
level moisture lingering over the area. CAMs are in general
agreement that some isolated storms will develop far east this
afternoon where dew points remain above 65, but will be mixing out
quickly. Then this evening, a few storms moving out of the
northern Gila region into Sierra county. Storms won`t be very
strong, but bring some brief moderate rain.
The upper ridge over the region will shift east by midweek with a
very stagnant pattern setting up. The ridge will become stalled
out over the Plains through the end of the week with a slow moving
upper low moving into the Great Basin. Even EC and GFS ensemble
means are showing all these features, so confidence is fairly high
with this pattern. The main synoptic features will then focus a
channel of moisture moving from the Gulf through Mexico and then near
the AZ/NM border region. NBM PoPs seemed a little low with
basically unmentionable thunderstorm chances through Thu, so did
raise at least west of the Divide into the 20s. Temperatures
during this period will be above normal with highs running about 7
to 10 degrees above normal.
Going into Fri and the weekend, the upper low will start to push
far enough east to start breaking down the ridge and bring the
moisture plume further east. There is a little difference on
PoPs in the Fri evening thru Sat timeframe. Feel with the
breakdown of the ridge, there will be at least some widely
scattered storms and raised PoPs. If storms to develop, there will
be some shear out east and may get some stronger cells.
Temperatures will start to cool down with closer to normal highs.
Another moisture surge and disturbance moving through system to
the west will bring another chance for storms areawide on Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1110 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
P6SM FEW-SCT080-100 SCT200-250 through mid evening. Just some
isolated storms far east in Hudspeth into Otero counties this
afternoon and then a couple will move into Sierra Co after 00Z. By
morning expect skies to clear across the area. Winds generally
west to southeast AOB 12KTS, just gusty near thunderstorms.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1110 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Above normal temperatures are expected through much of the
upcoming week with min RH`s in the mid teens to lower 20s east and
20s west and mountains. The moisture through Thursday will remain
focused west of the Continental Divide where isolated
thunderstorms will be possible daily. A breakdown of upper ridge
just to our east will push moisture further east going into the
end of the week with isolated to scattered storms areawide by
Friday. Winds generally under 15 mph but will start to increase
northern areas going into Thu/Fri.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  70  97  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            59  91  65  91 /   0  10  10   0
Las Cruces               63  93  65  93 /  10   0   0   0
Alamogordo               66  93  68  94 /   0  10  10   0
Cloudcroft               48  70  50  71 /   0  20  10  10
Truth or Consequences    64  93  65  91 /  20   0   0   0
Silver City              60  86  66  86 /   0  10  10  20
Deming                   63  95  66  95 /   0   0  10  10
Lordsburg                64  92  67  91 /   0  10  10  20
West El Paso Metro       70  94  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                62  95  65  95 /   0  10  10   0
Fort Hancock             66  97  69  97 /   0  10  10   0
Loma Linda               62  88  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   66  97  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             65  94  67  95 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           67  94  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            62  93  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    63  95  65  96 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus                 65  95  68  96 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                62  92  65  92 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  53  82  55  81 /   0  20  10  10
Mescalero                53  83  55  82 /   0  10  10  10
Timberon                 50  80  53  80 /   0  10  10  10
Winston                  53  85  55  84 /  20  10  10  10
Hillsboro                61  91  63  91 /  10  10  10  10
Spaceport                61  93  64  91 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             48  86  49  86 /   0  20  10  20
Hurley                   57  88  60  88 /   0  10  10  10
Cliff                    54  93  57  90 /   0  10  10  20
Mule Creek               51  88  53  88 /   0   0   0  10
Faywood                  61  88  64  89 /  10  10  10  10
Animas                   65  93  66  92 /   0  10  10  20
Hachita                  63  92  65  92 /   0  10  10  10
Antelope Wells           63  91  65  91 /  10  10  10  10
Cloverdale               61  87  64  86 /  10  10  10  20
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion