Townsville, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

995
FXUS62 KRAH 091735
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
135 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the Northeast will extend southwest into
the Mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas through much of the work week.
Weak disturbances will travel northeast near and along a lingering
frontal zone near the coast on Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 135 AM Tuesday...
* Continued pleasant weather with low humidity
* Increasing stratocumulus tonight, especially in the east
High pressure centered over the northeast US will continue to extend
southwest into the Carolinas today. A cool and dry northeasterly
flow will once again be the norm, with continued pleasant
temperatures. Highs will be some 4 to 8 degrees below normal,
ranging from the mid 70s in the NW to upper 70s east, with perhaps a
rogue 80 in the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain. Dewpoints will
once again mix out into the 40s in the west and 50s in the east.
Clouds will be on the increase this afternoon and especially the
evening and overnight, both from high clouds and some stratocumulus
building westward. An offshore coastal low is forecast to develop
off the NC coast along the stalled front tonight as mid-level energy
tied to an upstream trough over the Deep South and northern Gulf
tracks off the southeast coast. Guidance is not in the best
agreement on the strength of the low, which has implications on how
far westward the stratocu deck will extend. The GFS/NAM/HRRR show a
more developed low closer to the Outer Banks, which brings in 925 mb
low-level moisture as far west as the US-1 corridor. The ECMWF/CMC
models are more suppressed, which would keep the stratocu deck
mainly over the Coastal Plain. All in all, not much of a sensible
weather impact, but if the stronger solutions verify, could see some
patchy sprinkles or spotty showers early Wed in the northern Coastal
Plain. Lows will not be as cool due to cloud cover with mid 50s west
to low 60s east.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM Tuesday...
* Continued below normal temperatures
* Small chance of light rain or even some mist across
  northeastern areas.
North-northeasterly flow will continue into Wednesday with low
pressure offshore, and considering the amount of cloud cover present
over eastern counties today, it is likely the clouds will persist
tomorrow as well. Meanwhile, skies are likely to be partly to mostly
sunny in the Triad. The NAM is the most aggressive model for
precipitation, bringing rain as far southwest as Raleigh. Think that
this is a bit aggressive, but have brought a slight chance of
showers as far southwest as Wake County. With the cloud cover, there
should be a modest gradient in high temperatures - it`s possible an
isolated location in the northeast may not make it to 70 degrees
tomorrow, while the southwest should reach 80 degrees. Lows will
range from the mid 50s to the low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 115 PM Tuesday...
* Mainly dry weather with slightly below-normal temperatures
  moderating to near normal.
High pressure will be centered over West Virginia on Thursday
morning, remaining nearly stationary through the end of the week
before dissipating over the weekend. Meanwhile, another wave of
low pressure will form off the Florida coast along the front
that has been off the Atlantic coastline. As the low drifts
northeast, models are hinting that precipitation could make it
far enough west on Saturday afternoon to brush southern Sampson
County with an isolated thunderstorm. This is the only time
period in the extended forecast with a chance of rain. As that
low moves farther offshore, another low will develop over the
Northern Plains and begin to edge to the southeast, but any rain
with this system should remain west of central North Carolina
through Tuesday.
Highs will remain a couple degrees below normal Thursday through
Saturday (mid 70s to low 80s) before rising to near normal values on
Sunday with a brief rise above normal temperatures on Monday.
Similarly, lows will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s through
the period.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 135 PM Tuesday...
Fair weather with VFR conditions across much of central NC
early this afternoon will give way to increasing moisture and
low cloudiness from the east during the afternoon and
overnight. A band of high clouds will be undercut by invading
MVFR stratus and stratocumulus clouds with CIGS between 2-3kft
that reached the KRWI terminal this past hour. The westward
push is a little uncertain and the timing is tricky but MVFR
stratus is expected to reach the KFAY terminal between 19Z and
22Z and the KRDU terminal between 21Z and 23Z. CIGS will lower
overnight and a period of IFR CIGS is expected at KRWI between
09Z and 15Z with CIGS approaching IFR at KFAY and KRDU around
daybreak Wednesday. It`s unclear how far west the low stratus
will make it but feel confident enough at KGSO that marginal
MVFR CIGS will be in the area overnight. Overcast skies will
persist with CIGS slowly lifting on Wednesday.
North to northeast winds at 6 to 10 kts with gusts of 15 to 20
kts this afternoon will relax tonight with north winds at 5 to
10 kts overnight. North winds at 7 to 10kts are expected on
Wednesday with some gusts to around 16kts across eastern
locations.
Outlook: There is a good chance of MVFR and possibly IFR
stratus impacting eastern locations including KRWI and KFAY
(and probably KRDU) at times on Wednesday into Thursday. Fair
weather is expected across western locations including KINT and
KGSO. Fair weather and VFR conditions are largely expected for
Friday and Saturday. -Blaes
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Blaes

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion