Tracy, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

940
FXUS63 KFSD 021925
AFDFSD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
225 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Well above normal temperatures continue through Saturday. A
  few record high temperatures and warm low temperatures are
  possible over the weekend.
- Continued dry conditions and breezy to windy afternoons could
  lead to locally elevated fire weather concerns on Friday as
  fire fuels continue to dry out. However, more widespread
  concerns are expected by Saturday.
- Rain chances (30%-50%) likely return between Saturday night
  and Sunday mainly along and west of the James River Valley.
  Confidence is low, but can`t rule out an isolated stronger
  storm by Saturday evening.
- Near normal temperatures return with low (less than 20%) rain
  chances early to mid next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
CURRENTS & TONIGHT: Another warm day continues! Taking a look across
the area, mostly clear and quiet conditions persist across the area
this afternoon with slightly breezy conditions east of I-29. As
temperatures peak in the mid to upper 80s with the mid-level ridge
overhead, not expecting much changes heading into the evening
besides decreasing surface winds. Otherwise, should see the warmer
conditions continue into the overnight hours with lows in the upper
50s to low 60s expected.
THE WEEKEND: Looking into the weekend, a predominantly ridgy pattern
continues over the central to eastern two-thirds of the CONUS as a
strengthening upper-level trough digs into the Western CONUS and
Rockies. With the warmer part of the Ridge overhead and southerly
surface flow in place, expect above normal temperatures to continue
through at least Saturday with highs mainly in the upper 80s to low
90s each day. With the warmer conditions likely extending into the
overnight hours, we`ll have to monitor for a couple record highs and
potentially a few record high minimums on both Friday and Saturday.
Shifting gears here, one of the main concerns over the weekend will
be the breezy to gusty conditions as the SPG tightens with the
approaching wave. Starting Friday, southerly surface winds will
gradually increase with with gusts between 25-35 mph expected
mainly along and west of I-29. However, the strongest winds will
likely occur between Friday night and Saturday night as a strong
LLJ could lead to periodic gusts between 35-45 mph with isolated
pockets of higher. With this in mind, there will likely be some
fire weather concerns over the weekend (more in fire weather
section).
Otherwise, the focus will then shift towards our precipitation
chances (30%-50%) from Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Taking
a look aloft, 02.12z guidance continues to trend the better chances
northwestwards towards central and western SD with the better
forcing/lift in the base of the trough. As a result, should see the
NBM and ensemble probabilities continue to trend the better
chances/probabilities towards those areas over the next few
iterations. Current thinking is while the better chances will
likely stay west of the area, could still see a few scattered
showers with an isolated thunderstorm in area along and west of the
James River Valley. While uncertainty still remains on if any
stronger storms can get going given the timing/location differences
between the front, wave, and surface low; the chances aren`t exactly
zero. Given the deeper mixing, the main concern with any stronger
storms would be strong wind gusts up to 65 mph as collapsing showers
and storms develop cold pools. Nonetheless, the severe weather risk
is low with this low cape/high shear environment. By Sunday, cooler
conditions return to the area behind the passage of a surface cold
front. Increasing cold air advection (CAA) and a return to
northwesterly surface winds will then help temperatures fall into
the upper 60s to 70s along/west of I-29 and 70s to low 80s east of I-
29. Lastly quieter conditions will likely return heading into the
new week.
NEXT WEEK: Heading into the extended period, the quieter conditions
will likely persist through the midweek as a surface to mid-level
high pressure comes in to replace the departing cold front. While
there could be some smaller rain chances (10%-20%) by Monday as a
weak short wave lifts into central IA, not expecting much in terms
of accumulations moving forward. Nonetheless, the main story will
continue to be the fall-like temperatures ahead as highs tumble into
the 60s on Monday and Tuesday. While pushes of warm air advection
(WAA) between Wednesday and Thursday could help temperatures
gradually recover into the upper 60s, we`ll likely continue to to
see seasonal temperatures with limited precipitation chances ahead.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
VFR conditions will persist across the area this TAF period.
Taking a look at satellite imagery, clearer conditions persist
this afternoon with slightly breezier conditions east of I-29.
Expect southwesterly winds to gradually decrease by this evening
with light and variable winds returning overnight. Lastly,
expect the breezier conditions to return by Friday afternoon
mainly along and west of I-29 to end the TAF period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
With continued warm and breezy conditions expected over the
weekend, we`re expecting to have some fire weather concerns.
Starting with Friday, increased mixing and warmer temperatures
will lead to low (not critical) RH values between 28-35 percent.
As southerly surface winds increase (25-35 mph gusts) mainly
along west of I-29, could see some locally enhanced concerns
arise mainly across southcentral SD where high fire danger is
expected. With this in mind, could see some isolated fire
weather concerns through the afternoon and early evening; but
things should gradually taper down with the loss of diurnal
heating.
By Saturday, a similar but slightly different scenario will play
out. Conditions will continue to be dry and warm with RHs closer to
the 30-35% range. However, soundings suggest deeper mixing with a
stronger LLJ. As a result, while RH values aren`t near critical
thresholds; wind speeds definitely will be with gusts between 35-45
mph expected with isolated pockets of higher possible. Given the
drying but not fully cured fuels and uncertainty regarding if we can
fully tap into the LLJ; decided to hold off on any fire related
headlines for now. However, the conditions do warrant Red Flag
consideration given how quickly a fire could spread if started. With
this in mind, farmers will need to be mindful of their equipment
usage over the weekend as dry crop fields will be the most susceptible
to the start and spread of a wildfire.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
FIRE WEATHER...05

NWS FSD Office Area Forecast Discussion