Udall, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

315
FXUS63 KSGF 171850
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
150 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to scattered pulse thunderstorms will occur this
  afternoon into early this evening, mainly along and west of
  Highway 65. Strong to marginally severe wind gusts and small
  hail will be possible with a few of the stronger storms.
- Highs in the 90s continue across the area today and across
  the eastern Ozarks on Thursday.
- A cold front will move through the area from the west Thursday
  into Friday, bringing more seasonal temperatures and
  widespread rain chances (40-60%) to the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 141 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Synoptic analysis shows a semi-blocking pattern, with an upper ridge
over the area and two upper level lows residing over the east coast
and the Rockies. The warm airmass remains in place, with 850mb
temperatures in the 18-21C range, which is right between the
75th and 90th percentiles (75th: 19.3C ; 90th:21.2C). As such,
today is another hot day, although we`ll stay a few degrees
"cooler" than yesterday due to slightly higher cloud cover, with
temperatures topping out in the low 90s (But don`t worry, some
relief from the heat is coming soon!). Ended up nudging the
temperatures up a degree or two from the NBM, as morning
observations were already coming in warmer. Additionally, the
interquartile spread shows a 92-95 degree range, with the NBM
deterministic coming in at 91 (which Springfield already beat).
Today will be much like yesterday, with isolated to scattered pulse
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening (although expecting much
less coverage today). There`s not much in the way of forcing,
however the 12Z sounding depicted a convective temperature of 90
degrees (which we`ve already surpassed), so any storms that
develop will be primarily diurnally driven. We`ve been observing
cumulus development on satellite, with radar beginning to pick
up some isolated echoes as of 115PM. The best potential remains
along/west of Highway 65 where a narrow corridor of instability
between 1200-2000 J/kg is prominent until sunset. Most of this
activity should remain sub- severe, however similar to previous
days, an isolated thunderstorm or two could produce 60mph
downburst winds and hail up to quarters. Additionally, with very
slow storm motions and mean PWAT values between 1.0-1.25", very
localized heavy rainfall will once again be a possibility with
any of the stronger, longer- lived storms.
By sunset, any of this evening`s activity should diminish with the
lack of daytime heating, with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s
(low 60s over portions of the eastern Ozarks).
Tonight into tomorrow, the western upper level low pushes over the
Northern Plains and the associated upper trough pivots towards the
area, bringing much more energy into the region. Models are picking
up on a 20-30kt low level jet developing over Kansas overnight, with
a cold front making its way east from central Kansas. Latest CAMs
suggest thunderstorms developing over both southwest and central
Kansas before pushing northeast overnight. Some scattered
thunderstorms could make their way into our western CWA a little
before sunrise, however this activity should remain subsevere.
By Thursday afternoon, the upper trough is progged to approach the
area, with the cold front continuing eastward into western
Missouri, leading to more widespread thunderstorm coverage. The
warmest temperatures will be east of Highway 65, with highs in
the low 90s, however precipitation won`t reach these areas until
later. West of Hwy 65, highs will top out in the mid to upper
80s. Again, the better thunderstorm chances look to be
along/west of Highway 65, with instability climbing into the
1500-2500 J/kg range and mid- level lapse rates between 6.0-6.5
C/km. Typical pulse-severe parameters line up better over far
southwest Missouri (McDonald to west Taney counties and up
towards Highway 60), however with the additional lift from the
frontal boundary and 25-30kt bulk shear, some more slightly
organized convection could occur, leading to more of a severe
risk for areas west of a Morgan-Greene-Stone county line. This
is highlighted in the Day 2 Marginal SPC Outlook, with the
primary hazards being hail up to quarters and damaging winds up
to 60mph. HREF LPMM continues to highlight localized pockets of
1-2 inches of rainfall associated with these slow- moving
thunderstorms, however most locations won`t see this high of
amounts. Once we begin to lose daytime heating the severe
threat will drop off, however some lingering showers/thunderstorms
are expected to continue into the overnight hours as the cold
front continues pushing through.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 141 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
By Friday, the upper level energy will reach the area, pushing
overhead throughout the day. As a result, increased cloud cover will
keep temperatures relatively cooler, with widespread highs in the
low to mid 80s (still above normal, but much closer than what we`ve
been experiencing). The exception will be closer to south-central MO
towards the Bootheel region, where highs will continue to see the
90s. Additionally, much higher rain chances (40-60%) exist across
the area throughout the day.
Ensembles begin to slightly differ heading into the weekend w.r.t
the flow, but generally expect west/northwesterly flow aloft, with
several shortwave troughs pushing through bringing daily rain
chances (20-50%). This precipitation and the associated cloud
cover will continue to limit daily high temperatures in the low
to mid 80s.
Looking ahead to the beginning of next week, a prominent deep
upper level low will dive southeast from Canada into the Plains
region. Large inconsistencies between ensembles exist regarding
where this system sets up, its intensity, and its track - all
things that will largely influence our precipitation chances.
Continued with the 20-40% pops daily due to the uncertainty, but
we`ll have to continue monitoring this system as we get closer
to this timeframe.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
VFR conditions will persist through the entire TAF period.
There`s a 20-30% chance for scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening, however with the lowered confidence in these
affecting the terminals, continued to keep out of the TAFs at
this time.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Values listed below are for sites where the forecast is within
5 degrees of a record.
Record High Temperatures:
September 17:
KSGF: 96/1953
KJLN: 95/1953
KVIH: 97/1953
KUNO: 97/1953
September 18:
KVIH: 95/1953
KUNO: 96/1972
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Melto
CLIMATE...Melto

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion