Uncle Sam, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

919
FXUS64 KLIX 262006
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
306 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry forecast for the rest of the period with warm afternoons
   and comfortable low temperatures each day.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Quiet day across the region with only shallow ragged cu developing
this afternoon. The cold front had already moved offshore this
morning and is just about through all of the coastal waters. Drier
air is already beginning to infiltrate from the north and this
should help lead to far more comfortable mornings but afternoons
will still be quite warm.
Trough is currently moving through the Lower MS valley with the
trough axis stretching back to the SSW from central TN into the
northwestern Gulf and should finally slide across the area early
this evening. As the trough axis moves east it will slowly take
on more of a neutral tilt in the southeastern CONUS and this will
be the leading steering influence through the weekend of what will
highly likely be Imelda. This won`t be a concern for us but if
you have any family or friends that live along the coast from GA
to NC and even inland make sure they are paying attention to the
development of that tropical disturbance with impacts possibly
beginning Monday next week for that area.
For our area we will move under weak and dry northwest flow
overnight tonight with ridging building over the southern and
central Plains Saturday and into the Mid Valley Saturday night but
we will continue to be under very light northwest flow on Sunday
as the ridge is unable to build into the region. We will still
warm up very efficiently with limited cloud cover and dry
conditions. We will likely mix above h85 both Saturday and Sunday
and with h85 temps of around 14-15C afternoon highs will generally
top off in the mid to upper 80s. This will also lead to mixing of
drier air with dewpoints dropping into the mid 50s to mid 60s at
least and there is a good chance that we could even mix down lower
as the models typically struggle with early season Fall and Spring
cold fronts. The good thing is the humidity will be low and even
with the warm temps it will still be very comfortable. One
question with the forecast is models and MOS guidance aren`t very
optimistic on really cooling off overnight. With dewpoints
expected to mix down to atleast the mid 50s to mid 60s and soils
that area still very dry (didn`t quite get that wetting rain
everywhere) on would think morning lows should be able to drop
into the upper 50s to lower 60s for much of the area but this
isn`t what any of the guidance is indicating. For some reason all
of the models are showing winds at h925 still around 10-15kt
however sfc winds are around 5kt and h85 winds are around 5kts so
not sure if that slight increase in the h925 winds is keeping
things just mixed enough overnight. With the dewpoints expected
and the still very dry soil and boundary layer we did trend lows a
touch before guidance using a blend of the NBM/NBM10/NBM25 and
would not be surprised if we need to drop morning lows another
few degrees in a few locations Sunday morning with upper 50s
possible in isolated areas. /CAB/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
As chaotic as the pattern is going to get across the eastern 1/3rd
of the CONUS and western Atlantic the medium range models are in
surprisingly decent agreement with the evolution of the pattern.
Overall though it just means that we will most likely remain warm,
dry, and generally quiet. No significant adjustments made to the
forecast from the latest NBM.
It is a little difficult to truly trust the details at this time
as there WILL be a number of shifts as our trough that is
currently moving through the area leaves some piece of it over the
southeastern CONUS and interacts with again what will likely be
Imelda. At the same time the ridge that was building over the Mid
MS Valley will work ENE into the Great Lakes and over the OH
Valley region. That and possibly some interactions with Humberto
will really make the steering currents for that system weak. But
it will also likely keep the ridge over the southern Plain from
building more into the Lower MS Valley and depending on the exact
evolution and interactions could send a piece of the our trough
back down into the area from the north Tuesday night and Wednesday.
That said it is likely it won`t provide any real impact to the
area as we never recover moisture ahead of it. /CAB/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Cold front has moved off the coast and drier air is working into
the region. This will lead to VFR conditions throughout the entire
weekend with no impacts on air travel over the area. /CAB/
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
A cold front continues to move southward and has just about moved
through most of the coastal waters. This generated a few showers and
thunderstorms over the outer waters but that activity has also
pushed out of the area and the rain potential has ended. Even with a
cold front moving through winds will not increase much if any.
Offshore winds will set up but with no real cold air moving in winds
will remain light. /CAB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  62  86  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  64  88  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  63  88  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  71  88  70  90 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  67  88  65  89 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  63  89  63  90 /  10   0   0   0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion