Vancleave, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

647
FXUS64 KLIX 281859
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
159 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry forecast for much of the period with warm afternoons and
   comfortable low temperatures each day.
- Rain chances slowly increase toward the middle and end of the
   week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Another quiet, warm, and dry day across the region. Tropical
Depression 9 continues to try to organize over the Bahamas while
another area of low pressure is seen on visible satellite over
the central Gulf. High pressure dominates much of the central and
eastern CONUS. Temperatures have climbed into the upper 80s and
lower 90s across the area while dewpoints have fallen into upper
50s to mid 60s.
The next few days will be very quiet with s/w ridging over the
area. This will keep the area dry and warm. H925 temps will climb
to between 23-25C and this will continue to lead to rather warm
afternoon temps. Highs are expected to climb into the lower and
possibly even mid 90s for much of the area Monday and Tuesday. The
one possible hiccup with those temps on Tuesday is there could be
a decent layer of cirrus which would likely impact highs a little.
Things may start to change as we head into the middle and latter
portions of the week. /CAB/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
The confidence in the extended portion of the forecast is rather
low. As we have mentioned the last few days the pattern is going
to be quite chaotic over the sern CONUS and into the Atlantic and
even though the models have been in decent agreement they have
been changing daily. The latest run of the medium range guidance
does have a little more differences between them but overall have
the same general idea and not any major differences in the
sensible weather. With so much uncertainty and low confidence just
sticking with the latest NBM this forecast period.
Heading into the mid and back half of the week we will see the
ridge over the area break down. Multiple features come together
but where exactly they do finally come together will have larger
implications on rain potential. A s/w over the southern Plains
will be blocked by the ridge that is currently over the Great
Lakes and Oh Valley. Part of that s/w will break off and slowly
slide ESE under it towards the northwestern Gulf coast. As that
happens the broad mid lvl low over the sern CONUS will retrograde
and around Wed/Thu both of those features will eventually merge
either over the north-central Gulf coast or a little farther
north. Even with not a great deal of moisture recovery expected
this feature will likely be more than enough to squeeze scattered
showers underneath it. Right now it appears that could be more so
over the coast and into the Gulf and if that is the case the rain
would likely be contained to areas south of I-10 so locations like
southwest MS and the adjacent LA parishes could very well see the
dry weather continue through the week. LL temps will begin to
cool a touch and with an increase in cloud cover, afternoon highs
will likely be a goo 5-7 degrees cooler by Friday. /CAB/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
VFR conditions will continue over all terminals. Winds will remain
light. /CAB/
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Offshore flow continues into the work week as weak low pressure
over the central Gulf will slowly slide into the southwestern
Gulf and remain there through mid week. This will continue to
light to moderate off shore flow over the next few days. Overall
not anticipating a lot of impacts through mid week but a few
showers and thunderstorms may begin to develop over the coastal
waters Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds, seas/waves, and rain chances
will begin to increase late in the week. Moderate to even strong
easterly to east-northeast winds will develop around
Thursday/Friday as large area of high pressure develops over the
mid and northeast Atlantic states tightening the pressure gradient
over the coastal waters. /CAB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  89  66  89 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  67  92  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  65  91  66  90 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  73  92  74  92 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  70  90  70  90 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  66  91  66  90 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion