Vandalia, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

161
FXUS62 KRAH 151104
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
704 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will drift into, and meander over, eastern NC through
mid-week, while Canadian high pressure will otherwise extend across
the eastern US.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Monday...
* Low pressure system to bring rain chances starting Monday
  afternoon. Heavy rainfall may be possible Monday night through
  Tuesday afternoon in the northern Coastal Plain.
* Below normal temperatures expected, with increased cloud cover.
A low pressure system is currently located off the southern coast of
NC. This low pressure system will move to the northwest and looks to
move inland over NC sometime Monday night or Tuesday morning.
Regardless of exact track, rain is expected to spread over the
region from the east starting Monday afternoon into the evening and
will last through the day on Tuesday. There is still spread in the
track and location of the low, leading to some uncertainty in QPF
forecasts. However, many of the global models and CAMs are coming
into better agreement of showing a swath of heavier rain over the
northern Coastal Plain into Virginia, but exact location of this
swath and the rainfall total amounts are still unclear. It appears
that 1-3 inches of rain is most likely along and east of the US-1
corridor, however locally higher amounts will also be possible. The
timing of the heaviest rainfall looks to be from late Monday through
Tuesday morning or afternoon. The low pressure system should also
bring increased gusts each afternoon, with gusts of up to 30 mph
possible, with the greatest chance in the east.
Increased cloud cover will help keep temperatures below normal
Monday and Tuesday. Monday afternoon looks to have high temperatures
up to 10 degrees below normal, or in the low 70s in the northeast to
around or just above 80 in the southwest. Tuesday afternoon should
be cooler, with highs between 10 and 20 degrees below normal. This
will equate to highs of mid 60s in the north to around 70 in the
south. Lows should stay near normal each night, in the upper 50s to
low 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Monday...
* Lingering rain chances Wednesday morning through the afternoon.
* Continued clouds and below normal temperatures.
By Wednesday morning the center of the low pressure system should be
to our north. This will allow for some lingering rain chances from
the backside of the low Wednesday morning through the afternoon. Any
rain chances should diminish over the evening and night. Rain should
also be lighter on Wednesday than that on previous days. The
lingering cloud cover should keep temperatures below normal again on
Wednesday, with highs in the upper 60s in the north to mid-to-upper
70s in the south expected. Lows should dip into the upper 50s to low
60s once again overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 315 AM Monday...
A mid/upr-level cyclone now over the Southeast will lift newd and
deamplify across the Middle Atlantic and srn New England on Thu. In
its wake, A trough or shear axis will linger over the Carolinas
through the end of the week, while a weak ridge will otherwise
migrate from the OH and TN Valleys to the srn Middle Atlantic and
Carolinas, then offshore.  At the surface, a weakening ridge over
the region on Thu will yield to a weak Appalachian lee trough by
Fri. A reinforcing front and leading edge of renewed Canadian high
pressure will be led from ern Canada swd and through cntl NC early
Sat.
Although a small chance of a shower will linger with the remnant
mid/upr-level trough on Thu, no additional rain is anticipated
through the remainder of the forecast period. Temperatures will also
moderate ahead of the reinforcing, backdoor front early Sat, to
abound 5 deg above normal and in the 80s for Fri, before cooling
with the renewed Canadian high and airmass next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 700 AM Monday...
Initially VFR conditions will transition to MVFR and IFR through
tonight, with highest and earliest probability of occurrence at RWI,
as a shield of rain and flight restrictions spread inland ahead of
coastal low pressure that will drift near the NC coast. Surface
winds will also strengthen and become gusty with daytime heating
later this morning (after 13-14Z), strongest at RWI.
Outlook: High probability of sub-VFR conditions through Wednesday,
with the most adverse conditions likely across the KRWI, KRDU and
KFAY terminals, as the surface low is forecast to move across
eastern NC and linger through late Wednesday. Improving conditions
are possible on Thursday and especially Friday.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Helock
SHORT TERM...Helock
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...MWS/Blaes

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion