Verdi, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

778
FXUS65 KREV 290916
AFDREV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
216 AM PDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon with a few
  becoming strong to severe.
* Increasing winds may result in impacts to recreation and travel
  each afternoon through midweek.
* Cooler, unsettled weather prevails through much of the week, and
  possibly over the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Elongated low pressure in the eastern Pacific continues to approach
the western states per latest moisture-channel imagery, eventually
pivoting through the region later today. A favorable overlap of
large scale ascent, moisture, and weak instability will support
shower and thunderstorm development along and ahead of a leading
frontal boundary in the afternoon and early evening. A few
thunderstorms may even become strong to severe amid a strongly
sheared environment.
The W NV Basin and Range (generally along and east of Alt-95)
remains the most favorable area for thunderstorms (40-70% odds) as
greater instability and stronger updrafts are more likely to
withstand deep-layer wind shear -- and is thus the most favorable
area for severe thunderstorms. There is still some uncertainty in
thunderstorm potential farther west (e.g., NE CA, Tahoe, Greater
Reno-Carson-Minden area), but there does appear to be brief window
in the early afternoon (between 11 AM and 3 PM) when t-storms are
possible before the aforementioned front scours out moisture. In any
case, the primary hazard will be strong to severe outflow gusts, but
storms will also be capable of small hail and frequent lightning.
Fortunately, strong steering flow will promote faster storm motions
and limit the flash flooding potential today. Spotty showers and
perhaps a few lightning strikes likely develop tonight in the
Sierra, continuing into early Tuesday.
Aside from thunderstorms, S/SW winds will become gusty this
afternoon in response to the approaching low. Gusts of 30-40 mph
will be common across valleys while Tahoe Basin ridges gust to
60-80 mph in the late afternoon into the overnight hours. As a
result, expect choppy waters on area lakes, bumpy flights, and
difficult driving conditions for high-profile vehicles. Otherwise,
temperatures will be noticeably cooler today with daytime highs
only reaching the 60s and 70s.
A secondary cold front reaches northern California on Tuesday and
slowly sinks southward Wednesday into Thursday. Additional
showers will accompany the arrival of the front, but the slow-
moving nature of the front will keep a fetch of Pacific moisture
directed into the region. As a result, daily chances of showers
continue Wednesday and Thursday before we dry out Friday.
Afternoon winds will also remain gusty through midweek. Unsettled
weather may linger over the weekend, but confidence is low.
-Salas
&&
.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms, and increasing winds will be the main
weather concerns today as strong low pressure moves through the
region. While the best odds will stay east of region TAF sites (40-
70% odds at KNFL and KLOL), there is at least a 20-30% chance of
shower and t-storm impacts at KTRK-KTVL and KRNO-KCXP-KMEV in the
early afternoon. Thunderstorms will be capable of brief downpours
and MVFR conditions, strong outflow winds, small hail, and frequent
lightning.
S/SW surface gusts increase to 20-30 kts amid amplifying SW FL100
winds to 35-45 kts this afternoon and evening. This will likely pose
some LLWS and mountain wave turbulence for Tahoe and western Nevada
terminals, especially after 03Z when surface winds weaken.
-Salas
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM PDT this evening
     NVZ002-004.
CA...Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM PDT this evening
     CAZ072.
&&
$$

NWS REV Office Area Forecast Discussion