Wagner Cemetery, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

896
FXUS64 KMRX 171450
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1050 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1044 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Have updated the forecast this morning to include some slight
chance POPs across the southern TN valley and southwest NC from
early this afternoon through this evening. The upper low is to
our east, but we are still on the western periphery of its
influence. There is just enough vorticity and moisture on this
western edge to warrant the POP upgrade even though the NBM
continues to advertise near 0 POPs. The upgrade to slight chance
is supported by the latest RRFS runs, which show isolated showers
and storms down south this afternoon. Will send out new zones to
reflect these changes.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Key Messages:
1. Unseasonably warm temperatures will persist into next week.
2. Dry conditions expected through the weekend, with only low rain
chances coming toward the middle of next week.
Discussion:
A closed low near the Chesapeake Bay will start to track farther
east today and tomorrow, with a ridge over the MS Valley region. A
shortwave trough rotating around the low that brought showers/storms
yesterday will be to our south and east today, and we will have a
dry northerly flow and stable conditions through the column. This
pattern will be pretty static through the rest of the week, with the
ridge building slightly toward the east. Under the building ridge,
temperatures will be well above normal, with highs mainly in the 80s
to near 90 in southern sections.
The ridge loosens its grip on the area over the weekend as a trough
over the northern Plains approaches the Great Lakes and OH Valley.
However, we will likely remain dry through the weekend as the
pattern will not have good moisture flux off the Gulf due to an E-W
850 mb ridge axis across AL/GA/SC. Late in this forecast period,
there may be a closed low that drops into the Great Lakes/OH Valley
region that could bring some better forcing and moisture advection
our way, but the NBM only has slight chance PoPs for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Will leave that solution in the forecast for now.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 718 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Possible fog impacts at the terminals to start and again late is
the main concern for the period. Will include a brief tempo group
at TYS to start the period, but other than that confidence in fog
impacts is too low to include so will forecast VFR conditions all
sites. Winds will generally be light.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             87  63  89  62 /  20  10   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  83  60  86  61 /  10   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       84  60  86  60 /  10   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              79  56  83  55 /  10  10   0   0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...

NWS MRX Office Area Forecast Discussion