Wainwright, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

016
FXUS64 KTSA 121720
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1220 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
- Dry weather with above normal temperatures continue into next week.
   Rain chances will likely remain 10% or less until at least the
   middle of next week.
- Heat index values of mid 90s to near 100 degrees Friday into
   the weekend, which could increase heat stress potential for
   those with outdoor plans.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
High pressure remains in control across the region today. The
atmosphere will continue to warm, with low to mid 90s for most
locations. Dew points will also creep upwards into the mid 60s to
perhaps 70 F, boosting afternoon heat indices to 95- 100 F. This
could increase heat stress potential for those with outdoor plans.
Skies will remain partly to mostly sunny with no rainfall
expected for the rest of today or tonight. Lows tonight will
remain elevated, in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Saturday will be similar to Friday, with highs in the low to mid
90s, and heat indices of 95-100 F in the afternoon. Rain is not
expected. By Sunday the upper level ridge will back off a bit as a
weakening closed low moves in from the southwest, passing to the
northwest of the area. Current guidance has further backed off on
rain chances, with only a 10-15% chance of rain for a few areas
west of Highway 75, with dry conditions elsewhere. With a more
minimal impact from the glancing trough, temperatures will also
barely respond, if at all, Sunday. High pressure will reintensify
into early next week, with highs remaining generally in the low
to mid 90s and heat indices still reaching the mid 90s each day.
Overnight lows will also remain stable, mainly in the upper 60s to
low 70s. Rain chances will remain low through this period.
The upper level high will begin to weaken again by the middle of
next week as an upper level low closes off and dives south into the
region. Ensemble guidance continues to waffle with respect to the
exact track and intensity, as well as how much cool air will move
into the area. The most likely solution is for the low to knock
temperatures down a few degrees and increase the chance of showers a
bit for areas further north and west. However, given the large
spread, additional adjustments to the forecast are likely in the
days ahead.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
VFR conditions again expected through the period. South to
southwesterly winds around 10 knots this afternoon will calm this
evening before coming back up around 10 knots during the morning
hours tomorrow. Skies should remain mostly clear with no other
impacts expected.
Bowlan
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  94  72  92 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   72  95  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   70  94  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   68  93  67  91 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   68  91  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   69  91  68  92 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   70  93  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   69  92  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
F10   69  93  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   69  93  71  91 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...04

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion