Wakefield, New Hampshire Weather Forecast Discussion

350
FXUS61 KGYX 201843
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
243 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry high pressure continues to drift slowly east across
the Northeast through tonight. That will make for another very
chilly night, with widespread frost and some freezing conditions
expected. As the center of the high moves east of the area
Monday, southwest winds will begin to draw warmer air back
north. Monday and especially Tuesday will be quite warm,
possibly near 80 degrees. Then an approaching front will bring
the chance for much needed rain showers. Unfortunately any rain
looks to be too localized to alleviate drought conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure moves directly overhead tonight, leading to clear,
calm, and crisp conditions. Frost headlines were further
expanded tonight to include the Maine Midcoast, with Freeze
headlines across the western ME mountains and the northern half
of NH.
Lighter winds this afternoon go calm more quickly than Friday
evening. This plus the dry conditions will hasten temperature
falloff during the evening and overnight hours. Widespread lows
in the 30s are forecast across southern ME and much of NH. Opted
to include a Frost Advisory along the Midcoast given the more
conducive conditions and prev night lows in the mid/upper 30s.
Perhaps also adding to the cool night will be low tide
coinciding with the lows of the night. With low river flows and
low tide, the higher heat capacity of water may not have as
strong an influence for some of the peninsulas in the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Calm and cool start to Sunday as high drifts off the coast. Low
level flow shifts southerly and onshore. This will tend to raise
daytime RH from recent low values as a bit more moisture is
moved into the region. Skies will run more cloudy with some
cirrus but also the chance for a thin cumulus population in the
afternoon.
The southerly flow will also advect warmer temperatures into the
region. This will be most recognizable in the mountain valleys,
some 5 to 7 degrees warmer than today.
Not as cool Sunday night with the chance of some lingering
clouds as well as light breeze. Best chance for frost retreats
north to the mountains, but lows for much of the area still fall
into the low to mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message: Chances for rain showers increase mid to late
week...but localized nature means that drought likely continues to
deepen. Temps return to near to above normal.
Impacts: No significant weather impacts anticipated beyond
maintaining/deepening drought conditions.
Forecast Details: It is a quiet beginning of the week...but high
pressure will be slipping east and return flow will be underway.
While most of the period will be near to above normal...Mon and
especially Tue have the chance to be well above normal. Tue should
see high temps approaching 80 across southern parts of the forecast
area.
Then attention will turn towards a cold front dropping into the
region from the northwest. Upper trof will be digging thru St.
Lawrence Valley Tue into Wed...so I anticipate the front will be
able to make its way thru the region. I do not anticipate much
more than showers with the boundary however. There is some
indication that western Atlantic ridging reestablishing itself
and Midwestern trof may combine to stall the tail end of the
frontal boundary. That could provide a focus for more showers
Wed into Thu. Looking at the cluster analysis via DESI...this is
roughly 25 percent of ensemble members. But that is enough for
chance PoP...which is what the NBM guidance currently forecasts.
I would prefer it if PoP was not smeared out over 3 days or
so...because much of that will be dry...but I cannot rule out
precip on any of the days given the pattern. So I will leave the
PoP as is...but continue to message deepening/worsening drought
conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...No restrictions other than brief valley fog at HIE
and LEB late tonight. Winds will tend to remain calm tonight
with a southerly shift Sunday morning.
Long Term...Largely VFR conditions expected in the extended. A
passing front will bring the threat for SHRA and local MVFR or lower
conditions...but activity is not expected to be widespread at this
time. There is a low (25 percent or less) chance of an additional
round of rain moving across southern parts of the forecast area Wed
which is why the forecast has PoP for much of the week beyond Tue.
However most of that period will be dry with small windows for rain
between.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Light winds today become southerly Sunday as high
pressure drifts overhead and then out over the Gulf of Maine.
With the high overhead, waves a foot or less will be in bays and
harbors, with 1 to 2 ft in the coastal waters. As onshore flow
increases Sunday, expect waves to become 1 to 3 ft as the day
and evening go on.
Long Term...Winds and seas are anticipated to remain below SCA
thresholds. Swell from Gabrielle arrives midweek and seas may
build to around 5 ft. The period will be 10 to 15 seconds and
not expected to be hazardous to small craft outside of typical
shoaling areas.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Today will be less breezy but much drier as an Arctic
originating airmass builds into the region. Relative humidity
values are expected to drop into the upper teens to around 30
percent range which, despite light winds, will continue elevated
fire weather concerns, especially if fuels are readily
available. Conditions are not expected to be as conducive Sunday
as the dry airmass begins to shift east. The next chance for
measurable rainfall arrives Monday night through Wednesday, but
forecast amounts remain light.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
     MEZ007>009-012-033.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
     MEZ013-014-018>022-025>028.
NH...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
     NHZ001>004.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
     NHZ005>009-011.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Cornwell
SHORT TERM...Cornwell
LONG TERM...Legro
AVIATION...Cornwell/Legro
MARINE...Cornwell/Legro

NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion