Warm Springs, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

664
FXUS61 KRNK 062255
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
655 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Some lingering showers early on Sunday across the Piedmont
should give way to drier conditions and clearer skies for the
entire region on Sunday. Surface high pressure looks to settle
into the Northeast through early next week, which will allow
wedging conditions to develop across the Mid-Atlantic states.
This will keep clear skies and cool and dry conditions in place
through the majority of next week. Each morning ground fog and
low stratus will likely develop across river valley locations.
This will be especially true for mountain river valley
locations.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 645 PM EDT Saturday...
Cloudy skies prevail across the region, and are expected to
continue to do so into the early morning hours of Sunday. The
bulk of the showers/storm activity has exited the region to the
east. Through the remainder of the evening hours the best
chances of heavier rain showers and an isolated storm will be
east of a Wentworth, NC to Lynchburg, VA line. Through 1100 PM
EDT the back edge of this area of this convection will make
progress eastward before completely exiting region. West of this
stronger activity, we cannot rule out some isolated to scattered
lighter showers through most of the night. Patches to areas of
fog are expected to develop overnight, especially where winds
manage to decrease to near calm conditions and/or received a
generous amount of rain today and/or this evening.
Have updated hourly temperatures, dew points, sky cover, and
wind speed/gusts to better match the current conditions and the
expected trends through early tonight.
Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
1) Light rain showers may linger across the Piedmont behind the
   frontal passage early Sunday morning.
2) Cooler weather is expected areawide Sunday.
A strong shortwave moving through the lower Great Lakes region
on Sunday will help kick the cold front completely out of the
area by mid day Sunday. The shortwave looks to provide the area
with some upper level forcing for ascent, which may lead to some
enhancement of shower activity on the back side of the front
across the Piedmont early Sunday morning. Outside of these light
rain chances through the early and mid morning hours on Sunday,
rain chances are expected to diminish through beyond mid day,
and through the rest of the afternoon and evening as surface
high pressure works its way into the region. With high pressure
working its way into the region through the day on Sunday,
gradual clearing of a broken to overcast cloud deck should occur
throughout Sunday, with western areas likely seeing sunny skies
earlier in the day than the rest of the region.
Temperatures Sunday look to be much cooler behind the front,
with upper 60s to low 70s west of the Blue Ridge, and low to mid
70s east of the Blue Ridge.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1250 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
1) Quiet weather across the area as high pressure builds in.
2) Below normal temperatures expected throughout the period.
By Sunday night, the cold front that passed through will have moved
offshore into the Atlantic and any residual rainfall will have ended
across the entire area. The upper-level trough draws back north,
with a more zonal pattern emerging across the Eastern US early next
week. At the surface, a large high pressure system over the northern
Great Plains will build into the area and slowly progress east
through the period. As it moves into the Northeastern US, it will
wedge down east of the Appalachians, keeping cool and dry conditions
in place. Winds will remain slightly elevated due to this, around 5-
10 mph, gusting to around 15 mph at times each afternoon. Some
clouds will also be around, particularly for the eastern Piedmont
late Tuesday, as moisture from the Atlantic tries to move inland but
only makes it to the eastern edge of our area in the form of
increased cloud cover. No rainfall is expected area-wide through the
period.
Due to the high pressure wedge and mainly northerly wind flow behind
the front, temperatures remain below normal each day. Highs will be
in the 60s for the mountains and low to mid 70s for the Piedmont.
Overnight lows will be quite chilly, with 40s for the mountains and
50s elsewhere. The highest elevations could dip into the upper 30s
Monday/Tuesday mornings, and with a light breeze, could see wind
chills in the mid 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1250 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
1) Prolonged period of tranquil weather continues through the period.
2) Temperatures return closer to normal late week.
The high pressure wedge lingers into Wednesday over the Mid-Atlantic
before weakening that afternoon and eroding. The high pressure over
the Northeast moves into the Atlantic and dissipates. A southerly
flow of moisture will try to move into the area, and a broad upper-
level shortwave trough will try to aid in convection development.
However, with very limited moisture, any rainfall would likely be
confined to eastern Virginia and along the coast midweek. Still, a
few isolated showers cannot be ruled out for the far eastern
Piedmont locations Wednesday morning, but confidence is low in this
occurring, with PoPs around 10-15%. Any showers would be light and
short-lived, with rain chances ending by midday. Dry and quiet
weather continues for the late week into the weekend, with the only
notable synoptic change being a dry cold front moving into the area
on Friday. No rain is expected, but another shot of cooler air
arrives for the weekend. A large Canadian high builds in behind the
front, with the pleasant fall-like weather persisting.
Temperatures do fluctuate during the period, with highs midweek
mainly in the 70s area-wide, with a slight increase ahead of the
cold front Thursday and Friday once the wedge erodes. Highs those
days will be in the 70s, with low 80s for the Piedmont. Behind the
front on Saturday, highs fall back into the 70s, with 60s for the
mountains. Lows stay in the 50s, with 40s for the highest elevations
each morning.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...
MVFR CIGs are currently being observed at LWB this afternoon as
the frontal boundary approaches the area. These restrictions at
LWB will likely continue through the afternoon and evening as
the frontal boundary and showers push over the region. As shower
and thunderstorm activity does continue to overspread the area
today, brief MVFR to IFR restrictions are possible at all
terminals this afternoon and evening. These showers and
thunderstorms may also produce gusty and erratic winds near
terminals. Overnight, MVFR to LIFR restrictions are expected to
develop at all terminals as the frontal boundary comes to a slow
eastward progression, and nearly stalls over the area. This will
keep light rain shower activity and MVFR to IFR restrictions
for LYH and DAN through Sunday mid day. BLF and LWB look to be
the first two terminals to return to VFR Sunday morning as dry
air works its way into the region from the northwest as high
pressure pushes east. These VFR conditions will slowly spread to
eastern terminals throughout the morning, with LYH and DAN
likely returning to VFR conditions by the end of the TAF period.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Clear skies return late tomorrow, and linger through early to
mid next week as high pressure returns to the region, resulting
in mainly VFR conditions outside any late night/early morning
fog.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...DS/EB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...EB

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion