Warren, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

731
FXUS63 KFGF 190834
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
334 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers today, isolated t-storms possible. Additional 0.25 to
  0.75 inch rainfall next 24 hours, then shower chances
  diminishing over the weekend. Dry next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...Synopsis...
Forecast is progressing as anticipated early this morning. Upper
low is in northwest SD with a 500 mb vort in western Missouri.
Feed of deeper moisture extends from eastern Missouri northwest
across Iowa into Minnesota and there is a 40 kt 700 mb jet
involved as well. This feed of deeper moisture and mid level jet
will aid in an increase in shower coverage thru the morning
before diminishing this aftn. This is what was shown 24 hours
ago with an increase in coverage of showers arriving late Thu
night and lasting thru early Friday afternoon. Thus will
maintain the categorical pops for most areas thru 18z then went
close to model blend pops which shows chances of rain
diminishing mid to late afternoon into this evening. Additional
rain amounts 12z Fri to 12z Sat look to be in the 0.25 to 0.75
inch range. Isolated thunderstorms possible as well, but with
main upper low forecast to drop more southeast thru today and
tonight feel conditions less favorable for any funnels. Sfc low
however is present in east central SD near Huron and this will
be near the ND/SD/MN border by late today.
500 mb low and trough remains over Minnesota and eastern ND
Saturday but mositure feed is much less into the system. But
enough for continued scattered showers. Sunday will see upper
wave shift a bit more east with showers limited to east of the
Red River in MN then Monday will see clearing progress east thru
the entire area.
A much needed prolongued dry period is in store from Monday thru
Saturday across the area, as next in our series of upper lows
this time develops over the central or southern Plains with flat
upper ridge, 500 mb high heights, building north of upper low
across the area and south central Canada.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Aviation impacts are expected to continue through the TAF
period as areas of rain and stratus linger, with a low chance
for thunderstorms mainly in southeast ND/west central MN. Most
periods should see persistent MVFR ceilings and at least a
period of IFR Friday morning as deeper saturation of the low
levels occurs. This saturation may help develop fog/mist along
with the rain already rotating through the region further
reducing visibilities at time to IFR ranges. The most organized
areas of rain may begins to transition east during the
afternoon or evening Friday (west to east), but MVFR ceilings
should persist and IFR ceilings and potential fog may redevelop
due to the lingering moist low levels in the evening.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...DJR

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion