Waseca, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

892
FXUS63 KMPX 190757
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
257 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and weak storms on and off throughout the day,
continuing into early Saturday.
- Further daily shower chances through midweek, followed by seasonal
and dry weather.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Scattered to widespread showers are ongoing across a portion of the
MPX CWA, primarily across western Minnesota closer to the upper
level low that has been the primary driver behind the weather
pattern over the last few days. There have been a few rumbles of
thunder over the last 6 hours, but calling any of what is ongoing an
actual thunderstorm is a stretch with no instability to speak of for
now. As the upper level low continues to churn overhead, we can
expect continued scattered showers and some weak thunderstorms
throughout the day favoring the area on the eastern edge of the
center of the upper level low, which continues to look like the
western half of the State with lower coverage of showers in the
east. Forecast soundings from the RAP/NAM show a sneaky setup for
some cold air type funnel clouds primarily during the afternoon and
evening with low level instability and vorticity, coupled with LCL
heights at or just below about 1kft. As with other cold air funnel
setups, these rarely reach the ground and even if they do typically
have rotational velocities below 50kts, akin more to a thunderstorm
wind gust than a tornado in terms of speeds. Regardless, it will be
worth keeping an eye on the radar and sky if you plan on doing
anything outdoors, especially during the afternoon and evening.
Guidance continues to show a weakening of the upper level
circulation, resulting in the apex of the trough sliding eastwards
by Saturday morning which should also lower the coverage of showers
with weaker lift throughout the column overnight. There will still
be churning lobes of vorticity within the now broader trough, with
isolated to scattered showers continuing for most of the day, this
time favoring western WI to northern MN based on the position of the
best forcing with both the GFS/CFS producing the greatest CVA over
western WI. The trough continues to churn over the area becoming
less and less focused from Sunday through Tuesday, with northerly
flow aloft returning by Wednesday spelling an end to the isolated
showers. Throughout the 4-5 days of potential showers, we are not
looking at significant PWAT values such that flooding is expected
with rain rates generally staying below 1/4 inch per hour. The
synoptic scale guidance which covers the entire period, including
the ensembles, show a general 0.75-1.25 inches across much of the
area through Wednesday, with the highest amounts favored if we do
see some isolated thunderstorms.
Temperature wise, with cloud cover generally remaining prevalent
amidst the rain chances, we should not expect significant diurnal
swings with the airmass not changing much day to day. Highs
generally within the upper 60s to low 70s and lows in the upper 50s
are expected across the area. Due to the lack of surface response
from the upper level low, winds are also going to be on the lighter
side generally under 10mph throughout. This week will feel like
quintessential early autumn with cloudy and showery weather
alongside seasonal temperatures. This is a good time to see some
area-wide rainfall, as once we start to see some colder low
temperatures the preceding rain will help with some vivid leaf
viewing as we head into October and beyond.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Scattered clusters of thunder storms this evening. These storms
will continue through the evening, but with the loss of daytime
heating they should become less in coverage the later we get.
Rain will not come to an end as more widespread rain showers are
expected to develop overnight. MVFR likely and IFR possible with
the low ceilings rather than a visibility reduction. Showers
continue into tomorrow with another round of thunderstorms
possible in the afternoon. Winds will remain southeasterly,
light overnight and around 10 knots during the daytime.
KMSP...Thunderstorms in the vicinity of MSP to start this
period. These storms should reduce in coverage later in the
evening. Then tonight more widespread rain is expected to
develop. More of a continued MVFR impact with this with maybe a
brief period of IFR possible in the morning during the coolest
part of the day. Another round of thunderstorms possible in the
afternoon tomorrow.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 5-10 kts.
SUN...Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
MON...Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind S bcmg N 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...NDC

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion