Waterloo, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

973
FXUS64 KHUN 260848
AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
348 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New NEAR TERM...
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
A couple of showers/storms are lingering along a remnant outflow
boundary across northeast Alabama, but otherwise dry conditions
are present across the region. Thanks to the moist boundary layer
conditions from earlier rainfall, low stratus and some localized
patchy fog has develop across the area -- and with the stout
inversion in place, this cloud cover may linger through mid/late
morning. The surface low and its associated cold front will
continue to push through the region today. Daytime heating should
allow temperatures to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s by this
afternoon. This should allow for sufficient destabilization of
the boundary layer for low to medium (20-40%) chances for
thunderstorms later this afternoon, especially along and east of
I-65. MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg and low-level lapse rates
around 7.5 C/km will support a few strong storms capable of gusty
winds and small hail. PWATs around 1.3-1.5" will also support
locally heavy downpours with the strongest activity. Convection
will gradually wane this evening as the boundary sags southeast.
Patchy fog development will again be possible due to the earlier
rainfall -- with lows dropping into the lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 843 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
As the sfc low pressure system and subsequent cold front
continue to move southeastward over portions of the Tennessee
Valley, low to medium rainfall chances (20-40%) continue. These
will primarily be along I-65 and eastward as the cold front stalls
to our southeast through the first half of the weekend. A stronger
storm cannot be ruled out Friday afternoon as instability remains
sufficient (1200+ J/kg) along with decent low level lapse rates
(7-7.5 C/km). Shear continues to be inadequate, eliminating the
risk for any organized severe weather to occur.
Dry weather will return to the Tennessee Valley Sunday and
continue through early next week. Highs during this time are
forecast to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s with overnight lows
dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 843 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
A dry forecast continues through the first half of the work week
as an upper level ridge and subsequent sfc high pressure filters
into the Tennessee Valley from the west. Low rain chances creep
back into NE Alabama by mid week as the aforementioned cold front
shifts back to the NE and stalls over the Carolinas. However,
confidence in this is low as we continue to watch how the tropics
unfold off the eastern coast. Therefore, maintained a mostly dry
forecast through the end of the long term period. Highs during
this time are forecast to reach the 80s with overnight lows in
60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Low MVFR stratus may develop early this morning at KHSV and KMSL
due to moist boundary layer conditions from earlier rainfall. Some
light fog and visibility reductions may also occur. A return to
VFR conditions will occur after sunrise, but additional SHRA/TSRA
may develop along a front later today across eastern portions of
the area and have included a PROB30 to account for this.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will remain the predominant flight
category at each terminal through the period.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...AMP

NWS HUN Office Area Forecast Discussion