Webster, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

718
FXUS63 KMPX 131047
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
547 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and humid for the next several days with highs in the
  80s.
- Occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms for much of
  next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Low stratus and light fog have developed across parts of central
MN and on the Buffalo Ridge early this morning. Recent
satellite trends across central MN show it expanding westward,
but also clearing slowly from the east. The light easterly low
level flow should advect it westward through dawn before it
lifts and scatters. A warm front across far southern MN will
become nearly stationary today.  A hot airmass to the south
characterized by 925 mb temps exceeding +27C will send highs
into the low 90s near the Iowa border. Cooler air to the north
and southeast flow will keep highs elsewhere in the mid 80s.
Winds shift more southerly area wide Sunday, and while the
intensity of warm air aloft will ease a bit, a larger portion of
the region will reach the upper 80s. Combined with dew points
around 70, heat indices will likely top off in the low to mid
90s.
The Omega ridge axis shifts east Sunday to the Great Lakes, and
by afternoon, an upper trough will advance toward the Upper
Midwest. It will take on a more negatively tilt Sunday evening
and spread a 40-50 kt mid level jet streak into western
Minnesota. Lapse rates will remain weak, but an uncapped
atmosphere and stronger forcing arriving should allow storms to
develop by evening. SPC highlights western Minnesota in a day 2
marginal risk. With the upper trough lifting quickly to the
north Sunday night, the longevity and eastward extent of
convection going through the evening hours is in question, but
worthy of low chance PoPs as far east as eastern MN.
Sunday`s upper trough will lift north Monday and ridging will
build back in its wake. However, additional short wave troughs
embedded in the gyre of a parent trough over the northern
Rockies will keep the forecast unsettled for much of next week.
Confidence in the specifics such as timing and areal extent of
convection remains low.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 547 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Areas of light MVFR fog have developed across the region, with
a few pockets of IFR or worse conditions at STC/AXN, and in the
EAU area. These conditions should persist an hour or two into
the TAF period, with improvement thereafter. Otherwise, only
scattered mid/high level clouds expected through the period.
KMSP...No concerns through the period.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA late. Wind SE 5-10kts.
MON...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA pm. Wind S 5-10kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Borghoff

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion