Welsh, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

970
FXUS64 KLCH 291114
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
614 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep a dry air mass
  in place through midweek with no chance for rain, very warm
  days, and mild nights.
- An increase in moisture to go along with a developing upper
  level disturbance will bring a small chance for rain late in the
  week into next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Surface high over the Midwest will slowly move eastward and continue
to ridge down into the forecast area providing low level northeast
flow. The northeast flow will reinforce the dry continental air mass
in place. Meanwhile, ridging aloft will also persist over the
forecast area. This will keep the mid levels dry and the atmosphere
capped. Therefore, do not see any significant precipitation in the
forecast through midweek and will keep out the mention of pops.
With the dry air mass, air temperatures during the daytime will be
allowed to heat up nicely and remain warm and slightly above climo
norms, however low dew points will keep humidity in check. Nights
will be a mild with temperatures near climo norms.
Rua
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
A shift in the weather pattern will see surface high pressure to
move near or off the Mid-Atlantic region. This will allow a more
easterly flow in the low levels that will help modify the
continental air mass with some increase in moisture from the west
Atlantic and northeast Gulf, along with buckling the old frontal
boundary across the central Gulf back to the north. Also, a broad
shear axis looks to form across the southeast US through the
northern Gulf coast. With the increase in moisture and weakness,
aloft, some chance of rain will be introduced for Thursday through
the weekend, mainly during the daytime, and with the higher pops
near the coast.
Temperatures will be fairly close to climo norms during this period.
Rua
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR conditions through the period. Winds will be light and
northeast today.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Surface high pressure ridging down into the coastal waters through
mid week will keep a light to occasionally modest offshore flow to
go along with mainly low seas. By the end of the week, the surface
high will be ridging down from the Mid-Atlantic area, producing more
of a easterly flow. No significant chance of shower activity is also
noted through mid week, with shower activity increasing toward the
end of the week with an upper level disturbance developing over the
northern Gulf.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
The forecast pattern will not change much over the next few days
with high pressure at the surface and aloft over the region.
Therefore, a dry air mass will remain in place with no significant
chance for rainfall through midweek. Afternoon minimum relative
humidity is expected to be between 30 and 40 percent today and
around 40 percent on Tuesday. Surface winds will remain from mainly
the north and northeast at less than 10 knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  91  66  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  91  70  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  91  69  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  91  70  91  68 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...05

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion