West Branch, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

844
FXUS61 KBGM 271733
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
133 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure dominates the weather pattern for the coming
week, ensuring predominantly dry conditions other than a few
isolated light showers or sprinkles tonight around the Poconos
and southern Catskills. It will be warm Sunday and temperatures
remain above average through Tuesday. A colder, Canadian high
pressure system descends from the north Wednesday to bring
below average temperatures. This could yield at least scattered
frost in sheltered, typically colder valleys by Wednesday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
There is a weak upper level wave moving northeast from the Carolinas
tonight. This wave will get sheared out by the stronger
westerlies to the north. There could be a sprinkle or two
reaching Poconos/Catskills and will have in grids as per NBM
tonight. This wave exits region late tonight as a weak surface
high pressure ridge builds in by 12z Sunday. Guidance shows high
clouds for much of the night which should limit widespread
valley fog Sunday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure under a building upper air ridge, strengthens
over the region keeping all tropical activity well south of
central NY and northeast PA through mid-week. Monday morning
will likely see much more fog formation as high clouds remain
south of region. Then for Monday during the day, high pressure
weakens leaving a "col" region over NY and PA as the tropical
system affects the southeast coast as yet another Canadian high
begins to press down from the north Monday night. Weather will
be fair and mild through the period.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Another large and chilly high pressure system builds south
Tuesday and covers the region through Saturday. This high will
keep prolonged northeast winds over our area through Thursday
continuing cool Canadian air moving over our region. Thursday
morning we may see the potential for more frost and potentially
some freezing temperatures in our normally colder areas.
Then for Friday and Saturday, the high pressure slowly builds east
and leads to a moderating trend by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions will generally persist through this TAF period
with the possible exception of KELM late night-around dawn from
valley fog, and possibly KAVP. That said, layers of clouds
between 15-25 kft agl pose uncertainty for that fog
development, as well as increasing westerly flow just off the
surface. Despite model guidance still suggesting restrictive fog
at KELM, expectations are for it to fluctuate 08Z-11Z and then
set in for a shorter time around dawn before mixing out; a much
smaller window compared to prior nights. These clouds are
occurring on the northwest side of a weak disturbance making its
way up the coast. It is possible yet unlikely that a brief
shower could reach as far inland as KAVP this evening. If it
were occur though, that bit of moisture could contribute to
valley fog formation there as overhead clouds exit late tonight.
For now fog restrictions are not in the KAVP TAF because they
are not expected, but trends will be monitored.
Outlook...
Sunday afternoon through Thursday...Mainly VFR, other than
typical valley fog formation especially KELM late each night
through dawn each morning.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...MDP

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion