Westphalia, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

475
FXUS64 KFWD 161028
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
528 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...New Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably hot weather will continue this week with afternoon
  highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
- Isolated (around 10% chance) showers and storms are expected on
  this afternoon and again on Wednesday afternoon.
- There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms on a daily basis
  beginning late Wednesday and continuing through the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1258 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/
/Today through Wednesday Afternoon/
A tranquil start to today is unfolding across North and Central
Texas. Light south-southeast winds will prevail through the
morning, eventually settling around 5 mph or less the rest of the
day. The region will remain planted underneath a weakness in the
SW-NE oriented upper level ridge through Wednesday, allowing for
very low rain chances both this afternoon and again tomorrow. Due
to a lack of focused synoptic lift, any shower or storm will be
diurnally-driven with very isolated coverage. Severe weather is
not expected with this activity, though any of the more robust
storms could produce gusty, erratic winds and heavy rain. CAM
guidance is showing a bit of better coverage tomorrow afternoon,
but exact coverage is uncertain as there is really no big
synoptic pattern change between today and tomorrow (i.e., still
little mid-level lift). Due to this, have kept the same 10%
chance PoP across most of the region for Wednesday afternoon.
Otherwise, afternoon highs will peak in the upper 80s to mid 90s
through midweek.
Prater
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 1258 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/
/Wednesday Night Onward/
By mid-late week, an upper level low well to our northwest will
begin to slowly meander eastward toward the Continental Divide,
breaking down the northern portion of the upper-level ridge. The
movement of the closed low and associated trough will place North
and Central Texas on the far southern extent of the trough as we
go into the weekend. Multiple disturbances will round the base of
the trough, allowing for on and off showers and storms to occur
Thursday onward. The overall severe threat is on the lower end the
rest of the week, however, both instability and 0-6 km wind shear
look to increase over the weekend, All this being said, we could
not rule out an isolated strong to severe wind gust this weekend
into early next week. Otherwise, temperatures will remain near to
slightly above normal with afternoon highs in the 80s and 90s and
overnight lows in the 60s and 70s.
Prater
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/
Light southerly winds will continue to prevail today, varying in
direction between 140-230 degrees with speeds around 7 kt or
less. VFR will persist with diurnal cumulus. There remains a low
chance (~10% chance) for isolated showers and perhaps a storm this
afternoon. Have foregone any inclusion of VCTS/VCSH for now as
coverage is too spotty and any direct impact is uncertain.
Overnight, winds will become lighter and take a more westerly
component through the morning before returning more S-SW toward
the end of the period. With wind speeds remaining light, this
westerly shift should preclude any operational impact. Additional
convection is possible tomorrow afternoon, but this will be
covered in future TAF issuances.
Prater
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    93  73  94  73  93 /  10   0  10   5  20
Waco                92  71  92  71  92 /  10   0  10   0  10
Paris               93  69  92  69  90 /  10   5  10  10  30
Denton              93  69  94  69  93 /  10   0  10   5  30
McKinney            93  71  93  71  92 /  10   0  10   5  20
Dallas              94  74  95  74  94 /  10   0  10   5  20
Terrell             93  70  93  70  91 /  10   0  10   5  20
Corsicana           93  71  93  71  93 /  10   0  10   0  10
Temple              92  68  92  69  92 /  10   0  10   0   5
Mineral Wells       93  67  95  68  93 /  10   0  10   5  20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion