Wetmore, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

258
FXUS65 KPUB 061400
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
800 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cool and cloudy on the plains, with chances for showers later this
evening.
- Sunny and breezy for the San Luis Valley, with elevated fire
  weather conditions.
- Cool again Tuesday, with warming and drying conditions through the
rest of the week.
- Uncertainty increases closer to this weekend, with the
  possibility of better moisture moving into our region.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 740 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Deck of low clouds across the southeast plains appears more
persistent in high res models this morning and will alludes to
less cloud breaks in the afternoon as low level upslope flow
continues. Saturation in the low levels has resulted in
sprinkles and drizzle this morning across Pueblo and southern El
Paso county and suspect this will continue through the morning
before we start to see cloud bases rise a bit with a few breaks
in the afternoon. Working up an update shortly to increase
clouds and morning sprinkles and drizzle, and will take a
closer look at high temperatures across the southeast plains
where clouds may inhibit warming.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 343 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Currently..
Cloud cover continues to increase in coverage and lower in height
across our plains, as upslope deepens behind the cold front that
passes through earlier yesterday evening. Ceilings are ranging from
around 1,500ft over western El Paso County to around 5,000ft over
Pueblo County and the Lower Arkansas River Valley. Winds are
easterly and northeasterly over much of the plains, though speeds
have continued to decrease through the overnight hours.
Precipitation has all remained to our north since early yesterday
evening, though a few showers may still be possible early this
morning north of Highway 50. Temperatures are in the 40s and low
50s. Dewpoints are in the 30s and 40s.
Today and Tonight..
Upslope is expected to continue over our plains throughout the
entire day today, which will keep overcast skies over the majority
of our plains. Models are showing quite a range for high
temperatures, though all are in favor of far cooler than normal
temperatures. The lowest guidance keeps highs in the 40s over the
Pikes Peak region and 50s for Pueblo, though the majority are more
moderate. Have gone with solutions that keep us cloud covered but
allow temperatures to climb into the most agreed upon ranges, with
highs in the low 50s for the Pikes Peak region, the mid 50s for the
rest of the I-25 corridor, and upper 50s to low 60s for the eastern
plains. The warmest spot on the map today will be the San Luis
Valley, with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. Southerly winds
gusting to 25 mph and clear skies are expected over the valley
today. Spotty elevated fire weather conditions over central and
southern portions of the valley through the late afternoon hours,
when temperatures will be highest, humidities will fall into the low
teens, and winds will be gustiest. At this time, critical fire
weather conditions are not expected, as conditions will not be
widespread or long lived enough to warrant any highlights for the
valley. Low clouds and easterly to southeasterly winds are expected
to remain over the plains. Late this afternoon and this evening,
shortwave energy passes to our south, which looks to help spread
showers and weak thunderstorms across our southeast mountains and
southern plains. The trough axis to our north also passes overhead,
helping to spread spotty showers showers north of Highway 50.
Overall, precip chances through the evening are highest on our far
eastern plains, far southern plains, and over the Palmer Divide,
though qpf is really only significant on our far southeast plains.
Best chances for meaningful rainfall look to be over Las Animas and
Baca Counties, with chances for for a dusting of snow over the
eastern Sangres above 11,000 feet overnight as well. Upslope
continues through the overnight hours, leading to another night of
low clouds across the plains, with fog also possible late tonight
into early Tuesday morning, especially near the mountains.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 343 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Tuesday...
Westerly flow aloft will continue on Tuesday while the upper ridge
axis is pushed further to our north. The mid-level flow may carry a
bit of moisture into the southern half of our area, leading to some
showers over the southeast plains and southern Sangres, but
otherwise things are expected to remain largely dry. Temperatures
will be on the cool side, though a bit warmer than Monday, with 60s
over the plains and 70s over the San Luis Valley. Meanwhile,
easterly surface winds should keep cloud cover in place over
portions of the plains and I-25 corridor.
Wednesday Onwards...
High pressure and upper-level ridging will continue building in over
our region through the latter half of the week. Temperatures will
continue to increase, with highs climbing back into the 70s-80s,
while most of the area remains dry aside from our western mountains.
Main uncertainty in the long term will be the behavior of the
tropical cyclone remnants from the southern Pacific. Long-term
models disagree on whether to eject the main circulation further
west or carry the moisture into our region through the jet. Models
diverge greatly on this after about Thursday-Friday, but it is
possible that at least some of the moisture will make its way
towards us, bringing wetter and potentially cooler conditions later
this weekend and into next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 740 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025
KCOS will likely stay IFR through at least the morning with a
window for MVFR in the afternoon though southeast upslope flow
does carry the risk that cigs could stay on the high end of IFR
even into the afternoon hours. Low cloud deck will thicken and
lower again overnight likely going back down in the IFR and
perhaps even LIFR category overnight with some fog development.
Updated TAFs for the first 6-12 to keep conditions IFR and to
add some -DZ which is evident in radar spreading northward.
Quick update to add -DZ to KPUB TAF this morning as is evident
in radar and outside. Cigs and vis are likely to remain MVFR
through the morning, though there is a low end outside chance
for some brief IFR. It is possible that MVFR cigs will persist
through the duration of the afternoon with lowering cigs again
tonight. Have maintained a brief window for VFR cigs for now
until 12z model runs come in.
No changes made to KALS TAF as clouds will likely stay banked up
along the east slopes of the Sangre De Cristo mountains. Breezy
southwest winds will spread in during the afternoon. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...KT

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion