Willow Beach, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

572
FXUS65 KVEF 021143
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
443 AM PDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Our next system arrives Friday, bringing precipitation chances to
  the Great Basin and dry, gusty conditions elsewhere.
* Beyond Friday, temperatures will remain slightly below normal
  along with dry conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...through Wednesday.
Models remain in good agreement on the arrival of our next system on
Friday and expectations for this storm have not changed too much.
Precipitation chances remain confined to the Sierra and Great Basin,
where PoPs range from 20-60% (highest in our farthest northwest
locations). Precipitation amounts don`t look significant at this
time, with the valleys having a 75% chance of less than 0.25" and
the mountains having a 75% chance of less than 0.50". However, snow
levels around 9,500-10,000 feet will allow some minor snow
accumulations (1-4") to occur on the Sierra crest. Farther
southeast, dry conditions continue on Friday while winds ramp up.
Fairly widespread gusts of 20-40 mph are likely (50% chance or
greater) from western San Bernardino/southern Inyo counties up to
central/northern Mohave County and Lincoln County. Hi-res guidance
highlights portions of the Owens Valley and the Desert Rock to
Indian Springs area with 50% odds of seeing 40+ mph gusts due to
localized downsloping.
The progressive nature of this system means that it`ll be out of our
area by Saturday. In its wake, drier conditions, cooler
temperatures, and lighter breezes. Ensembles continue to indicate a
reloading/persistent trough over the western US through the middle
of next week, which means the aforementioned conditions are likely
to linger, albeit with a slight moderation in temperatures toward
seasonable values.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Winds
follow typical diurnal patterns today, settling out of the
southeast by late morning and veering to the southwest during the
afternoon. Sustained speeds will increase to around 10-12KT, with
intermittent higher gusts to 18-20KT expected, especially from
late afternoon through early evening. Thereafter, winds remain
southwesterly, with gusts diminishing through early morning when
gusts to 20-25KT return through the end of the period. VFR
conditions prevail with FEW-SCT clouds with bases around 25kft.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Winds will generally
follow diurnal patterns through the forecast period. Winds shift
to the south to southwest this afternoon, increasing to around
10-15KT with gusts to 18-22KT common. Up-valley gusts closer to
25KT are expected in the Owens Valley this afternoon, and across
the western Mojave Desert, gusty westerly winds are expected to
hold off until the evening, with gusts to 25-30KT expected there
through the night. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail with
passing mid and high clouds, and showers expected to develop
across the Sierra Crest late in the period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Phillipson
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion